Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Kalunga K.
49' Event
Kamta K.
90' Event
Abba U.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa game between Mingachevir and Difai Agsu finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mingachevir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Mingachevir
6%
Draws
4%
Difai Agsu
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Mingachevir

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mingachevir come out ahead of Difai Agsu on wins alone.
  • Model gives Mingachevir a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Mingachevir have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 68%
Difai Agsu Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir Difai Agsu
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 16 6
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 2.38 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu
2:1
Dec 18, 2025 I Liqa
Difai Agsu vs Mingachevir
1:1
Sep 24, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu
2:0
May 1, 2025 I Liqa
Difai Agsu vs Mingachevir
1:4
Feb 28, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalunga K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Difai Agsu Compare

Top Goalscorer Kamta K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 95 / 100
Difai Agsu 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir Difai Agsu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MIN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mingachevir scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Difai Agsu conceded in 94% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Mingachevir remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS Difai Agsu
2.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mingachevir

(Home)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1
MOIK Baku
05 May
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Mingachevir
29 Apr
Mingachevir
7 : 1
Zaqatala PFK
Page 1 of 6

Difai Agsu

(Away)
21 May
MOIK Baku
4 : 0
Difai Agsu
14 May
Shimal
0 : 1
Difai Agsu
06 May
Difai Agsu
0 : 0
Safa Baku
30 Apr
Baku Sporting
1 : 1
Difai Agsu
23 Apr
Difai Agsu
0 : 4
Sabail
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Cebrayil 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)