Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mingachevir vs Sabail 2

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

First Division 2022/2023
Mingachevir Logo

Mingachevir

1 - 1
FT
Sabail 2 Logo

Sabail 2

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Badirov K.
84' Event
Alizada E.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this First Division 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Mingachevir
30%
Draws
47%
Sabail 2
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sabail 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mingachevir lately — more wins on the board than Sabail 2.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 20%
Sabail 2 Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir Sabail 2
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 14 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.78 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2023 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sabail 2
1:1
Dec 17, 2022 I Liqa
Sabail 2 vs Mingachevir
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Sabail 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Badirov K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 31 / 100
Sabail 2 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir Sabail 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mingachevir Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mingachevir scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Sabail 2 has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Mingachevir remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mingachevir

(Home)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
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Sabail 2

(Away)
23 May
Mingachevir
1 : 1
Sabail 2
16 May
Sabail 2
0 : 0
MOIK Baku
08 May
Araz PFK
3 : 1
Sabail 2
04 May
Sabail 2
1 : 0
Gabala 2
24 Apr
Turan 2
0 : 2
Sabail 2
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Araz PFK 28 22 3 3 69:22 69
2 Neftci Baku 2 28 18 5 5 67:32 59
3 Turan 2 28 15 3 10 49:37 48
4 Sabail 2 28 13 5 10 46:44 44
5 Gabala 2 28 12 8 8 45:28 44
6 Zaqatala PFK 28 13 5 10 49:48 44
7 Kapaz 2 28 13 4 11 41:36 43
8 MOIK Baku 28 12 7 9 43:42 43
9 Lokbatan 28 12 5 11 30:23 41
10 Shamakhi 2 28 11 4 13 40:56 37
11 Qarabag Agdam 2 28 9 4 15 32:39 31
12 Zira FK 2 28 6 10 12 28:41 28
13 SumQayit FK 2 28 6 4 18 36:60 22
14 Mingachevir 28 5 5 18 29:51 20
15 Imisli FK 28 6 2 20 21:66 20
Promotion - Premier League 2023/2024 (Main)