Sport Picks

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Mingachevir vs Sabail

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Mingachevir Logo

Mingachevir

0 - 1
FT
Sabail Logo

Sabail

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Safarov Q.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Sabail in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sabail.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Mingachevir
15%
Draws
45%
Sabail
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sabail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mingachevir lately — more wins on the board than Sabail.
  • Sabail are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Sabail here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 10%
Sabail Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir Sabail
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 6 8
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.93 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sabail
4:1
Mar 12, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sabail
0:1
Sep 12, 2025 I Liqa
Sabail vs Mingachevir
2:0
Mar 3, 2017 I Liqa
Sabail vs Mingachevir
3:0
Oct 4, 2016 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sabail
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Sabail Compare

Top Goalscorer Safarov Q.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 14 / 100
Sabail 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir Sabail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mingachevir scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Mingachevir went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Sabail conceded in 43% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS Sabail
2.38 Goals Scored 2.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Mingachevir

(Home)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1
MOIK Baku
05 May
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Mingachevir
29 Apr
Mingachevir
7 : 1
Zaqatala PFK
Page 1 of 6

Sabail

(Away)
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
06 May
Zaqatala PFK
0 : 3
Sabail
30 Apr
Sabail
6 : 0
Cebrayil
23 Apr
Difai Agsu
0 : 4
Sabail
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Cebrayil 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)