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Mingachevir vs Sabail

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Safarov Q.

AI Match Summary

Sabail in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sabail.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Mingachevir
30%
Draws
47%
Sabail
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sabail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sabail lately — more wins on the board than Mingachevir.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Sabail here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 10%
Sabail Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir Sabail
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 15
Draws 7 9
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.87 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2026 I Liqa
Sabail vs Mingachevir
2:1
May 22, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sabail
4:1
Mar 12, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sabail
0:1
Sep 12, 2025 I Liqa
Sabail vs Mingachevir
2:0
Mar 3, 2017 I Liqa
Sabail vs Mingachevir
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Sabail Compare

Top Goalscorer Safarov Q.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 34 / 100
Sabail 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir Sabail

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sabail Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mingachevir scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Sabail let in goals in 43% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Mingachevir remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS Sabail
3.13 Goals Scored 2.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Mingachevir

(Home)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
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Sabail

(Away)
17 Sept
Baku Sporting
0 : 1
Sabail
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
03 Sept
FC Khankendi
1 : 1
Sabail
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)