Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mingachevir vs Sahdag Qusar

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Kalunga K.
24' Event
Voronsov R.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this I Liqa 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Mingachevir
20%
Draws
44%
Sahdag Qusar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sahdag Qusar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Mingachevir have won more games recently than Sahdag Qusar.
  • Win probability leans Mingachevir's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 68%
Sahdag Qusar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir Sahdag Qusar
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.97 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2026 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Mingachevir
2:0
Dec 24, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sahdag Qusar
1:1
Oct 1, 2025 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Mingachevir
0:0
Mar 22, 2017 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Sahdag Qusar
1:0
Oct 27, 2016 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Mingachevir
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalunga K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Sahdag Qusar Compare

Top Goalscorer Voronsov R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 50 / 100
Sahdag Qusar 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir Sahdag Qusar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MIN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mingachevir's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Sahdag Qusar let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Mingachevir stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS Sahdag Qusar
2.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mingachevir

(Home)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1
MOIK Baku
05 May
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Mingachevir
29 Apr
Mingachevir
7 : 1
Zaqatala PFK
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Sahdag Qusar

(Away)
22 May
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 1
Baku Sporting
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
05 May
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Mingachevir
29 Apr
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
22 Apr
Zaqatala PFK
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Cebrayil 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)