Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Mingachevir vs Zaqatala PFK

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Muradov K.
13' Event
Kalunga K.
55' Event
Kalunga K.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa 2025/2026 game between Mingachevir and Zaqatala PFK finished 7-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mingachevir.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Mingachevir
20%
Draws
51%
Zaqatala PFK
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Zaqatala PFK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mingachevir come out ahead of Zaqatala PFK on wins alone.
  • 29% — that's where the model lands on Mingachevir taking it.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 68%
Zaqatala PFK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mingachevir Zaqatala PFK
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 17
Goals Scored 1.87 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 2.94 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Zaqatala PFK
2:2
Apr 29, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Zaqatala PFK
7:1
Feb 13, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Zaqatala PFK
0:0
Oct 23, 2025 I Liqa
Zaqatala PFK vs Mingachevir
2:3
Apr 3, 2025 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs Zaqatala PFK
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mingachevir Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalunga K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Muradov K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.26
Avg xA / game 1.47

Zaqatala PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Mahmudov D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mingachevir 68 / 100
Zaqatala PFK 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mingachevir Zaqatala PFK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mingachevir Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mingachevir scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.

Zaqatala PFK has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Mingachevir went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mingachevir VS Zaqatala PFK
3.13 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Mingachevir

(Home)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
22 May
Mingachevir
4 : 1
Sabail
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Zaqatala PFK

(Away)
16 Sept
Karvan
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
10 Sept
Zaqatala PFK
3 : 0
Baku Sporting
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
22 May
Zaqatala PFK
2 : 1
Safa Baku
15 May
Baku Sporting
3 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)