Sport Picks

USA

MLS Allianz Field

Austin FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Minnesota United play Austin FC in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Minnesota United averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. Austin FC averaged 1.15 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. In past meetings, Minnesota United won 1, Austin FC won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Minnesota United and 1.31 for Austin FC. This points to a Minnesota United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Minnesota United

32%

Draws

26%

Austin FC

Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Minnesota United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Minnesota United picked up more points recently compared to Austin FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 64%

Over 3.5 Goals 38%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%

Minnesota United Clean Sheet 18%

Austin FC Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Minnesota United	Austin FC
Matches Played	31	33
Wins	13	8
Draws	6	7
Losses	12	18
Goals Scored	1.42	1.15
Goals Conceded	1.48	1.79
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 MLS

Minnesota United vs Austin FC

Possession: 46% - 41% Cards: 3 - 2

2:2

Feb 22, 2026 MLS

Austin FC vs Minnesota United

Possession: 58% - 48% Cards: 1 - 1

2:2

Sep 18, 2025 US Open Cup

Minnesota United vs Austin FC

Possession: 47% - 58% Cards: 2 - 4

1:2

May 25, 2025 MLS

Minnesota United vs Austin FC

Possession: 54% - 52% Cards: 4 - 2

1:1

May 4, 2025 MLS

Austin FC vs Minnesota United

Possession: 46% - 57% Cards: 1 - 0

0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Minnesota United Compare

Top Goalscorer Markanich A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Pereyra J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Austin FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Minnesota United 41 / 100

Austin FC 25 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Minnesota United Austin FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Minnesota United or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.1%

1.72

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Minnesota United attacking → ← attacking Austin FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Minnesota United scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Austin FC let in goals in 76% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Minnesota United went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Austin FC lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 31

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34:12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34:15	32
3	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26:19	26
4	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30:22	25
5	Los Angeles FC	15	7	3	5	24:17	24
6	Seattle Sounders	13	7	3	3	17:11	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19:23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18:22	22
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	15	5	5	5	22:22	20
10	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30:27	17
11	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25:24	16
12	St. Louis City	14	4	4	6	16:20	16
13	Portland Timbers	14	4	2	8	22:28	14
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19:31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	14	3	2	9	14:36	11

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	14	10	3	1	31:11	33
2	Inter Miami	15	9	4	2	39:28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27:16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22:18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25:32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24:23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36:37	20
8	New York City	15	5	4	6	25:21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21:25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21:23	16
11	CF Montreal	14	4	2	8	22:31	14
12	Orlando City	15	4	2	9	23:44	14
13	Toronto FC	14	3	5	6	22:29	14
14	Atlanta United	14	3	2	9	14:23	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18:30	7