Sport Picks

South America

Copa Libertadores Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

LDU Quito

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mirassol play LDU Quito in the Copa Libertadores. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mirassol averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. LDU Quito averaged 1.29 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. In past meetings, Mirassol won 1, LDU Quito won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 7, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Mirassol and 1.25 for LDU Quito. This points to a LDU Quito double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Mirassol

19%

Draws

44%

LDU Quito

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: LDU Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Mirassol picked up more points recently compared to LDU Quito.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 36%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Mirassol Clean Sheet 19%

LDU Quito Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mirassol	LDU Quito
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	10	14
Draws	6	5
Losses	13	9
Goals Scored	1.17	1.29
Goals Conceded	1.17	0.89
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Copa Libertadores

Mirassol vs LDU Quito

Possession: 59% - 48% Cards: 1 - 1

2:0

Apr 15, 2026 Copa Libertadores

LDU Quito vs Mirassol

Possession: 59% - 58% Cards: 1 - 2

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mirassol Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Oliveira

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

LDU Quito Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mirassol 37 / 100

LDU Quito 42 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mirassol LDU Quito

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: LDU Quito or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +27.6%

3.45

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +19.9%

3.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mirassol attacking → ← attacking LDU Quito

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mirassol scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

LDU Quito let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Mirassol went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

LDU Quito lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 47

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	6	5	1	0	14:2	16
2	Estudiantes L.P.	6	2	3	1	6:5	9
3	Ind. Medellin	6	2	1	3	6:11	7
4	Cusco	6	0	1	5	4:12	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coquimbo	6	3	1	2	8:6	10
2	Deportes Tolima	6	2	2	2	7:6	8
3	Club Nacional	6	2	2	2	7:9	8
4	Universitario de Deportes	6	1	3	2	5:6	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ind. Rivadavia	6	5	1	0	15:6	16
2	Fluminense	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Bolivar	6	1	2	3	6:8	5
4	Deportivo La Guaira	6	0	3	3	6:13	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	U. Catolica	6	4	1	1	8:4	13
2	Cruzeiro	6	3	2	1	8:3	11
3	Boca Juniors	6	2	1	3	6:5	7
4	Barcelona SC	6	1	0	5	2:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Corinthians	6	3	2	1	8:4	11
2	Platense	6	3	1	2	8:7	10
3	Santa Fe	6	2	2	2	6:7	8
4	Penarol	6	0	3	3	4:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cerro Porteno	6	4	1	1	6:2	13
2	Palmeiras	6	3	2	1	10:5	11
3	Sporting Cristal	6	2	0	4	6:9	6
4	Junior	6	1	1	4	5:11	4

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	LDU Quito	6	4	2	8:5	12
2	Mirassol	6	4	2	7:4	12
3	Lanus	6	3	3	3:7	9
4	Always Ready	6	1	5	7:9	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	6	4	1	1	11:6	13
2	Rosario Central	6	4	1	1	9:1	13
3	Universidad Central	6	3	0	3	7:11	9
4	Libertad Asuncion	6	0	0	6	4:13	0