Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Modena vs Padova

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Sub
Harder J. In: Crisetig L.
Out: Harder J.
8' Event
Lasagna K.
Assist: Di Mariano F.
14' Event
Faedo C.
Assist: Buonaiuto C.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Modena and Padova finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Padova.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Modena
11%
Draws
9%
Padova
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Modena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Modena have managed 0.88 goals a game lately — Padova are scoring more at 1.13.
  • Modena are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Modena Clean Sheet 18%
Padova Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Modena Padova
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 0.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Serie B
Modena vs Padova
1:2
Jan 11, 2026 Serie B
Padova vs Modena
2:0
Apr 18, 2021 Serie C - Group B
Modena vs Padova
3:0
Dec 23, 2020 Serie C - Group B
Padova vs Modena
0:1
Jan 19, 2020 Serie C - Group B
Padova vs Modena
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Modena Compare

Top Goalscorer Zanimacchia L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Padova Compare

Top Goalscorer Lasagna K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Faedo C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Modena 76 / 100
Padova 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Modena Padova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOD Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Modena's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Padova let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Padova lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Modena VS Padova
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Modena

(Home)
28 Jul
Cagliari
1 : 0
Modena
25 Jul
Modena
5 : 0
Virtus Bolzano
12 May
Modena
0 : 1
Juve Stabia
08 May
Avellino
1 : 0
Modena
01 May
Modena
2 : 1
Reggiana
Page 1 of 6

Padova

(Away)
25 Jul
Padova
1 : 3
Ospitaletto
22 Jul
Sassuolo
4 : 1
Padova
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
01 May
Padova
1 : 0
Pescara
25 Apr
Entella
1 : 0
Padova
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Venezia382410477:3182
2Frosinone382312376:3481
3Monza382210661:3276
4Palermo382012661:3372
5Catanzaro381514962:5159
6Modena3815101349:3655
7Juve Stabia381118944:4551
8Avellino3813101543:5549
9Mantova381371845:5746
10Padova3812101639:4946
11Cesena3812101645:5646
12Carrarese3810141447:5244
13Sampdoria3811111635:4844
14Entella3810121636:5142
15Empoli389141547:5441
16Sudtirol388171338:4841
17Bari3810101838:6040
18Reggiana389101936:5637
19Spezia388111943:5935
20Pescara387141751:6635
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)