Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Modena vs Spezia

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
De Luca M.
Assist: Wiafe S.
51'
Bellemo A.
53'
Beruatto P.

AI Match Summary

Modena in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Modena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Modena
35%
Draws
30%
Spezia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Modena have won more games recently than Spezia.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Modena Clean Sheet 16%
Spezia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Modena Spezia
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.22 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.21 1.46
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Serie B
Modena vs Spezia
3:0
Dec 13, 2025 Serie B
Spezia vs Modena
0:2
Feb 15, 2025 Serie B
Modena vs Spezia
1:1
Nov 2, 2024 Serie B
Spezia vs Modena
1:0
Feb 25, 2024 Serie B
Modena vs Spezia
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Modena Compare

Top Goalscorer De Luca M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Gliozzi E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.6

Spezia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Modena 31 / 100
Spezia 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Modena Spezia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Spezia has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Modena found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (27 games).

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Modena went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Modena VS Spezia
1 Goals Scored 2.29
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.43
25% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 57%
13% Over 3.5 57%

Recent Form & Match History

Modena

(Home)
15 Aug
Venezia
3 : 2
Modena
08 Aug
Modena
0 : 0
Vis Pesaro
01 Aug
Trento
0 : 1
Modena
28 Jul
Cagliari
1 : 0
Modena
25 Jul
Modena
5 : 0
Virtus Bolzano
Page 1 of 6

Spezia

(Away)
16 Aug
Spezia
4 : 1
Sassari Torres
01 Aug
Empoli
1 : 1
Spezia
08 May
Pescara
1 : 1
Spezia
01 May
Spezia
2 : 2
Venezia
25 Apr
Catanzaro
4 : 2
Spezia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)