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Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal

India India

ISL Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Mohun Bagan play East Bengal in the ISL. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mohun Bagan averaged 1.88 goals scored and 0.74 conceded. East Bengal averaged 2.09 goals scored and 0.94 conceded. In past meetings, Mohun Bagan won 2, East Bengal won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Mohun Bagan and 1.63 for East Bengal. This points to a Mohun Bagan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Mohun Bagan
28%
Draws
33%
East Bengal
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Mohun Bagan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Mohun Bagan picked up more points recently compared to East Bengal.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Mohun Bagan Clean Sheet 14%
East Bengal Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mohun Bagan East Bengal
Matches Played 34 35
Wins 21 20
Draws 8 8
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.88 2.09
Goals Conceded 0.74 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
1:1
Oct 31, 2025 Super Cup
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
0:0
Oct 18, 2025 IFA Shield
East Bengal vs Mohun Bagan
1:2
Aug 17, 2025 Durand Cup
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
1:2
Jan 11, 2025 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs East Bengal
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mohun Bagan Compare

Top Goalscorer Cummings J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

East Bengal Compare

Top Goalscorer Lalrindika E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mohun Bagan 38 / 100
East Bengal 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mohun Bagan East Bengal

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mohun Bagan or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mohun Bagan attacking → ← attacking East Bengal

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mohun Bagan scored in 82% of their last 33 games.

East Bengal let in goals in 63% of their last 35 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Mohun Bagan went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

East Bengal lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

71 Points in last 5 68
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1East Bengal1375130:1126
2Mohun Bagan1375123:926
3Mumbai City1374217:925
4Bengaluru FC1365218:1223
5Jamshedpur1364315:1022
6Minerva Punjab1364318:1222
7FC Goa1355315:1120
8Kerala Blasters1352615:1717
9North East United1344516:2116
10Inter Kashi1334611:1713
11Odisha FC1325614:2211
12SC Delhi1325613:1711
13Chennaiyin FC132389:219
14Mohammedan1303107:323