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Mohun Bagan vs Jamshedpur - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

India India

Durand Cup
Mohun Bagan Logo

Mohun Bagan

Mon, Aug 17, 2026
2 - 1
10:30 AM
Jamshedpur Logo

Jamshedpur

Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Samad S.
45' Event
Murgaokar D.
1' Event
Chawngthu L.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Mohun Bagan
20%
Draws
33%
Jamshedpur
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mohun Bagan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Jamshedpur haven't matched Mohun Bagan's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Mohun Bagan's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Mohun Bagan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Mohun Bagan, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Mohun Bagan Clean Sheet 19%
Jamshedpur Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mohun Bagan Jamshedpur
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 18 16
Draws 8 5
Losses 2 9
Goals Scored 2.04 1.43
Goals Conceded 0.57 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 1.27
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Durand Cup
Mohun Bagan vs Jamshedpur
2:1
Apr 4, 2026 ISL
Jamshedpur vs Mohun Bagan
1:1
Apr 7, 2025 ISL
Mohun Bagan vs Jamshedpur
2:0
Apr 3, 2025 ISL
Jamshedpur vs Mohun Bagan
2:1
Jan 17, 2025 ISL
Jamshedpur vs Mohun Bagan
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mohun Bagan Compare

Top Goalscorer Samad S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86

Jamshedpur Compare

Top Goalscorer Murgaokar D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.71

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mohun Bagan 42 / 100
Jamshedpur 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mohun Bagan Jamshedpur

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mohun Bagan found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Mohun Bagan went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Jamshedpur let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mohun Bagan VS Jamshedpur
2.63 Goals Scored 2.17
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.83
63% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Mohun Bagan

(Home)
08 Oct
Mohun Bagan
1 : 0
East Bengal
04 Oct
Mohun Bagan
1 : 0
Minerva Punjab
29 Sept
Mohun Bagan
1 : 1
North East United
23 Sept
Mohun Bagan
6 : 0
Sreenidi Deccan
23 Aug
East Bengal
4 : 1
Mohun Bagan
Page 1 of 6

Jamshedpur

(Away)
17 Aug
Mohun Bagan
2 : 1
Jamshedpur
13 Aug
Jamshedpur
6 : 0
Indian Air Force (New Delhi)
04 Aug
Jamshedpur
1 : 2
SC Delhi
26 Jul
Jamshedpur
5 : 0
Defenders FC
21 May
Jamshedpur
0 : 0
Odisha FC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
SC Delhi 5
Raengdai 1
Army Red 0
East Bengal 1
Mohun Bagan 2
Jamshedpur 1
Lajong 2
North East United 5
Semi-finals
SC Delhi 0
East Bengal 1
Mohun Bagan 1
North East United 0
Final
East Bengal 4
Mohun Bagan 1