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MOIK Baku vs Mingachevir - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Mukhtarly C.
58' Event
Ismayilov B.
80' Event
Mursalov A.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa game between MOIK Baku and Mingachevir finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward MOIK Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
MOIK Baku
20%
Draws
7%
Mingachevir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: MOIK Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mingachevir come out ahead of MOIK Baku on wins alone.
  • Model gives MOIK Baku a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Mingachevir have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 11%
Mingachevir Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric MOIK Baku Mingachevir
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.34 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Mingachevir
3:0
May 15, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs MOIK Baku
3:1
Feb 25, 2026 I Liqa
Mingachevir vs MOIK Baku
2:0
Nov 20, 2025 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Mingachevir
0:3
May 16, 2025 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Mingachevir
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

MOIK Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Mukhtarly C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ismayilov B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Mingachevir Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MOIK Baku 83 / 100
Mingachevir 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
MOIK Baku Mingachevir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOIK Baku Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

MOIK Baku scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Mingachevir let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

MOIK Baku has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

MOIK Baku VS Mingachevir
1.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

MOIK Baku

(Home)
09 Oct
MOIK Baku
3 : 0
Mingachevir
18 Sept
FC Khankendi
0 : 2
MOIK Baku
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
21 May
MOIK Baku
4 : 0
Difai Agsu
Page 1 of 6

Mingachevir

(Away)
09 Oct
MOIK Baku
3 : 0
Mingachevir
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Sabail
2 : 1
Mingachevir
04 Sept
Mingachevir
2 : 2
Zaqatala PFK
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sahdag Qusar 4 4 0 0 13:1 12
2 Gancabasar 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
3 Sabail 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
4 Karvan 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
5 MOIK Baku 4 2 1 1 6:2 7
6 Zaqatala PFK 4 1 1 2 5:11 4
7 FC Khankendi 4 0 2 2 3:6 2
8 Shimal 4 0 2 2 4:8 2
9 Mingachevir 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
10 Baku Sporting 4 0 0 4 0:9 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)