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MOIK Baku vs Sahdag Qusar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Messias

AI Match Summary

Sahdag Qusar in this I Liqa matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sahdag Qusar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
MOIK Baku
20%
Draws
45%
Sahdag Qusar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sahdag Qusar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sahdag Qusar lately — more wins on the board than MOIK Baku.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 20%
Sahdag Qusar Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric MOIK Baku Sahdag Qusar
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 12 16
Draws 7 6
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.31 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.53 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Sahdag Qusar
0:1
Apr 29, 2026 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Sahdag Qusar
0:1
Mar 12, 2026 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs MOIK Baku
1:1
Sep 11, 2025 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Sahdag Qusar
1:2
Mar 4, 2017 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs MOIK Baku
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

MOIK Baku Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Sahdag Qusar Compare

Top Goalscorer Messias
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MOIK Baku 32 / 100
Sahdag Qusar 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
MOIK Baku Sahdag Qusar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sahdag Qusar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

MOIK Baku found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (32 games).

MOIK Baku went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Sahdag Qusar let in goals in 52% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

MOIK Baku VS Sahdag Qusar
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

MOIK Baku

(Home)
09 Oct
MOIK Baku
3 : 0
Mingachevir
18 Sept
FC Khankendi
0 : 2
MOIK Baku
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
21 May
MOIK Baku
4 : 0
Difai Agsu
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Sahdag Qusar

(Away)
07 Oct
Sahdag Qusar
6 : 0
Zaqatala PFK
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
22 May
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 1
Baku Sporting
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sahdag Qusar 4 4 0 0 13:1 12
2 Gancabasar 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
3 Sabail 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
4 Karvan 4 2 1 1 7:3 7
5 MOIK Baku 4 2 1 1 6:2 7
6 Zaqatala PFK 4 1 1 2 5:11 4
7 FC Khankendi 4 0 2 2 3:6 2
8 Shimal 4 0 2 2 4:8 2
9 Mingachevir 4 0 1 3 3:10 1
10 Baku Sporting 4 0 0 4 0:9 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)