Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

I Liqa

Shimal

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

MOIK Baku play Shimal in the I Liqa. It looks like a close match. Recently, MOIK Baku averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Shimal averaged 0.87 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. In past meetings, MOIK Baku won 2, Shimal won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 6, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for MOIK Baku and 0.94 for Shimal. This points to a MOIK Baku double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

MOIK Baku

29%

Draws

24%

Shimal

Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: MOIK Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

MOIK Baku picked up more points recently compared to Shimal.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 78%

Over 2.5 Goals 54%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 24%

Shimal Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 70%

Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	MOIK Baku	Shimal
Matches Played	34	30
Wins	11	6
Draws	8	5
Losses	15	19
Goals Scored	1.24	0.87
Goals Conceded	1.62	2.23
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2026 I Liqa

Shimal vs MOIK Baku

Possession: 59% - 42% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Dec 10, 2025 I Liqa

MOIK Baku vs Shimal

Possession: 56% - 45% Cards: 2 - 4

2:0

Sep 19, 2025 I Liqa

Shimal vs MOIK Baku

Possession: 42% - 44% Cards: 0 - 4

1:1

Oct 29, 2024 Azerbaijan Cup

MOIK Baku vs Shimal

Possession: 44% - 59% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

MOIK Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Faracov S.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Shimal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.23

Avg xA / game 0.14

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

MOIK Baku 47 / 100

Shimal 24 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

MOIK Baku Shimal

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: MOIK Baku or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20.3%

2.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.3%

2.08

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

MOIK Baku attacking → ← attacking Shimal

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

MOIK Baku scored in 68% of their last 34 games.

Shimal let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

MOIK Baku went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Shimal lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 23

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.25

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Safa Baku	27	16	9	2	52:21	57
2	Mingachevir	27	15	6	6	55:27	51
3	Sabail	27	14	8	5	46:21	50
4	Baku Sporting	27	13	10	4	40:23	49
5	Sahdag Qusar	27	12	7	8	36:27	43
6	MOIK Baku	27	9	6	12	33:40	33
7	Zaqatala PFK	27	8	4	15	27:44	28
8	Cebrayil	27	7	3	17	40:56	24
9	Shimal	27	5	5	17	23:61	20
10	Difai Agsu	27	4	6	17	28:60	18