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Mokpo vs Changwon

South Korea South Korea

K3 League
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Lee Jong-Hun
67' Event
Jang Han-young

AI Match Summary

The K3 League game between Mokpo and Changwon finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Mokpo
40%
Draws
29%
Changwon
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Changwon come out ahead of Mokpo on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular K3 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Mokpo Clean Sheet 14%
Changwon Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mokpo Changwon
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 7 14
Draws 10 10
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 0.75 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 20, 2026 K3 League
Changwon vs Mokpo
1:1
Mar 14, 2026 K3 League
Mokpo vs Changwon
1:1
Jul 6, 2025 K3 League
Changwon vs Mokpo
0:0
Mar 2, 2025 K3 League
Mokpo vs Changwon
0:2
Sep 1, 2024 K3 League
Mokpo vs Changwon
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mokpo Compare

Top Goalscorer Jang Han-young
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Changwon Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee Jong-Hun
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mokpo 31 / 100
Changwon 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mokpo Changwon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mokpo's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Changwon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Mokpo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mokpo VS Changwon
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mokpo

(Home)
15 Jul
Cheonan City
2 : 1
Mokpo
11 Jul
Mokpo
2 : 1
Gangneung
04 Jul
Mokpo
3 : 2
Anseong Citizen
27 Jun
Ulsan Citizen
4 : 1
Mokpo
20 Jun
Changwon
1 : 1
Mokpo
Page 1 of 6

Changwon

(Away)
15 Jul
Changwon
1 : 5
Gimhae
12 Jul
Changwon
1 : 1
Chuncheon
04 Jul
Changwon
3 : 0
Geumsan Insam
27 Jun
Changwon
2 : 2
Yeoju Citizen
20 Jun
Changwon
1 : 1
Mokpo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Siheung Citizen17124124:1440
2Pocheon17105230:1535
3Daejeon Korail1794427:1231
4Busan Kyotong1786326:1330
5Dangjin Citizen1874729:2625
6Changwon1767418:1625
7Yeoju Citizen1756620:2221
8Gyeongju KHNP1747623:2419
9Ulsan Citizen1754817:1919
10Gangneung1754815:2619
11Chuncheon1745830:2917
12Yangpyeong1737720:2916
13Mokpo1729614:2515
14Jeonbuk 218161119:429
Relegation - K3 League (Relegation)