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Molde vs Fredrikstad - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Aker Stadion, Molde
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
06:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Molde host Fredrikstad in the Eliteserien. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Molde have averaged 2.52 scored and 1.48 conceded recently, against Fredrikstad's 1.36 scored and 1.46 conceded. Head-to-head, Molde have won 1 to Fredrikstad's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 13, 2025, ending 1:2. The numbers (2.50 xG vs 1.50) point toward Molde. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Molde
35%
Draws
24%
Fredrikstad
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Molde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Fredrikstad haven't matched Molde's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Molde a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Eliteserien form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Molde Clean Sheet 16%
Fredrikstad Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Molde Fredrikstad
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 4 7
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 2.52 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2025 Eliteserien
Molde vs Fredrikstad
1:2
Jul 12, 2025 Eliteserien
Fredrikstad vs Molde
4:2
Dec 7, 2024 NM Cup
Fredrikstad vs Molde
1:0
Sep 14, 2024 Eliteserien
Molde vs Fredrikstad
6:1
Jul 13, 2024 Eliteserien
Fredrikstad vs Molde
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Molde 84 / 100
Fredrikstad 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Molde Fredrikstad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Molde Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Molde's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Fredrikstad conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Molde stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Molde VS Fredrikstad
4.25 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Molde

(Home)
11 Oct
Lillestrom
2 : 2
Molde
04 Oct
Molde
3 : 0
Kristiansund
19 Sept
Molde
1 : 2
Aalesund
16 Sept
Trygg/Lade
0 : 5
Molde
13 Sept
Ham-Kam
1 : 5
Molde
Page 1 of 6

Fredrikstad

(Away)
11 Oct
Fredrikstad
1 : 1
Tromso
20 Sept
Valerenga
1 : 1
Fredrikstad
16 Sept
Stjordals Blink
0 : 1
Fredrikstad
13 Sept
Fredrikstad
1 : 1
Sarpsborg 08
04 Sept
Fredrikstad
1 : 2
Bodo/Glimt
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Viking 22 17 2 3 56:20 53
2 Bodo/Glimt 22 17 2 3 56:20 53
3 Tromso 22 11 6 5 41:30 39
4 Molde 22 11 4 7 46:34 37
5 Rosenborg 22 10 4 8 40:31 34
6 Lillestrom 22 10 3 9 30:31 33
7 Brann 22 9 2 11 39:34 29
8 Fredrikstad 22 8 5 9 26:33 29
9 Sarpsborg 08 22 7 7 8 28:31 28
10 KFUM Oslo 22 8 4 10 27:36 28
11 Ham-Kam 22 7 5 10 33:46 26
12 Sandefjord 22 6 6 10 22:28 24
13 Valerenga 22 6 5 11 35:45 23
14 Aalesund 22 4 9 9 35:50 21
15 Kristiansund 22 5 4 13 22:43 19
16 Start 22 4 4 14 24:48 16
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen 2027 (Main)