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Mondercange vs Fola

Luxembourg Luxembourg

BGL Ligue 2024/2025 Stade Communal, Mondercange
Our Tip

Match Events

40'
Costa R.
45' Event
Diakhite P.
Penalty Missed
48'
Diakhite P.

AI Match Summary

Fola in this BGL Ligue 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fola.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Mondercange
15%
Draws
68%
Fola
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fola

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Mondercange haven't matched Fola's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Fola's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular BGL Ligue 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Mondercange Clean Sheet 10%
Fola Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mondercange Fola
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 8
Draws 3 1
Losses 21 20
Goals Scored 1.07 1.14
Goals Conceded 2.72 2.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 BGL Ligue
Mondercange vs Fola
0:1
Nov 24, 2024 BGL Ligue
Fola vs Mondercange
1:0
May 5, 2024 BGL Ligue
Mondercange vs Fola
2:1
Nov 26, 2023 BGL Ligue
Fola vs Mondercange
2:2
Feb 26, 2023 BGL Ligue
Fola vs Mondercange
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mondercange Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Fola Compare

Top Goalscorer Freitas D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.39
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mondercange 10 / 100
Fola 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mondercange Fola

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fola Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fola has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Mondercange's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Mondercange remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Mondercange VS Fola
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
3.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Mondercange

(Home)
09 Nov
Mondercange
2 : 3
Victoria Rosport
21 Sept
FF Norden
1 : 4
Mondercange
28 Jul
Mondercange
0 : 6
FC Mamer
19 Jul
Mondercange
0 : 3
Kaerjeng
13 Jul
Jeunesse Esch
6 : 0
Mondercange
Page 1 of 6

Fola

(Away)
22 Apr
Fola
0 : 1
FC Rodange 91
04 Mar
Fola
3 : 1
Hostert
09 Nov
Rumelange
2 : 4
Fola
21 Sept
Jeunesse Biwer
1 : 4
Fola
25 Jul
Jeunesse Esch
0 : 4
Fola
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Differdange 30 25 3 2 69:7 78
2 UNA Strassen 30 18 6 6 62:23 60
3 Dudelange 30 17 6 7 67:34 57
4 Racing Luxembourg 30 17 6 7 50:22 57
5 Progres Niedercorn 30 16 7 7 54:30 55
6 Hesperange 30 16 6 8 56:34 54
7 Mondorf 30 16 5 9 53:39 53
8 Jeunesse Esch 30 11 9 10 41:48 42
9 Union Titus Petange 30 11 8 11 41:32 41
10 Hostert 30 11 5 14 50:69 38
11 Victoria Rosport 30 8 10 12 29:45 34
12 FC Rodange 91 30 7 8 15 40:62 29
13 Wiltz 30 8 5 17 37:61 29
14 Bettembourg 30 7 2 21 29:59 23
15 Fola 30 4 1 25 18:78 13
16 Mondercange 30 3 3 24 21:74 12
Promotion - Champions League 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - BGL Ligue 2024/2025 (Relegation)