Sport Picks

Wales

Division 1

Aberbargoed Buds

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Monmouth play Aberbargoed Buds in the Division 1. It looks like a close match. Recently, Monmouth averaged 1.63 goals scored and 2.16 conceded. Aberbargoed Buds averaged 1.87 goals scored and 2.27 conceded. In past meetings, Monmouth won 3, Aberbargoed Buds won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Dec 28, 2019 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Monmouth and 0.69 for Aberbargoed Buds. This points to a Monmouth double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Monmouth

18%

Draws

38%

Aberbargoed Buds

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Monmouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Monmouth picked up more points recently compared to Aberbargoed Buds.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 0.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 92%

Over 2.5 Goals 77%

Over 3.5 Goals 46%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%

Monmouth Clean Sheet 28%

Aberbargoed Buds Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 83%

Second Half Goal 87%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Monmouth	Aberbargoed Buds
Matches Played	19	15
Wins	6	4
Draws	2	4
Losses	11	7
Goals Scored	1.63	1.87
Goals Conceded	2.16	2.27

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 28, 2019 Division 1

Monmouth vs Aberbargoed Buds

Possession: 43% - 47% Cards: 2 - 1

2:3

Sep 7, 2019 Division 1

Aberbargoed Buds vs Monmouth

Possession: 52% - 55% Cards: 0 - 3

3:3

Jan 2, 2016 Division 1

Aberbargoed Buds vs Monmouth

Possession: 41% - 50% Cards: 4 - 3

0:3

Sep 12, 2015 Division 1

Monmouth vs Aberbargoed Buds

Possession: 50% - 55% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Dec 19, 2013 Division 1

Aberbargoed Buds vs Monmouth

Possession: 49% - 42% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monmouth 45 / 100

Aberbargoed Buds 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Monmouth Aberbargoed Buds

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Monmouth or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.6%

1.41

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Monmouth attacking → ← attacking Aberbargoed Buds

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monmouth scored in 68% of their last 19 games.

Aberbargoed Buds let in goals in 93% of their last 15 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Monmouth went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Aberbargoed Buds lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

20 Points in last 5 16

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00