Sport Picks

Wales

Division 1 2015/2016

Aberdare Town

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Monmouth play Aberdare Town in the Division 1 2015/2016. It looks like a close match. Recently, Monmouth averaged 1.55 goals scored and 2.05 conceded. Aberdare Town averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. In past meetings, Monmouth won 3, Aberdare Town won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 6, 2016 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.92 for Monmouth and 1.00 for Aberdare Town. This points to a Monmouth double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Monmouth

16%

Draws

40%

Aberdare Town

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Monmouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Monmouth picked up more points recently compared to Aberdare Town.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.00 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 65%

Over 3.5 Goals 39%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Monmouth Clean Sheet 23%

Aberdare Town Clean Sheet 16%

First Half Goal 74%

Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Monmouth	Aberdare Town
Matches Played	20	30
Wins	6	10
Draws	3	4
Losses	11	16
Goals Scored	1.55	0.97
Goals Conceded	2.05	1.87

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 6, 2016 Division 1

Aberdare Town vs Monmouth

Possession: 45% - 46% Cards: 4 - 1

1:2

Apr 20, 2016 Division 1

Monmouth vs Aberdare Town

Possession: 47% - 48% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

Apr 4, 2015 Division 1

Monmouth vs Aberdare Town

Possession: 55% - 55% Cards: 3 - 1

3:1

Sep 13, 2014 Division 1

Aberdare Town vs Monmouth

Possession: 50% - 41% Cards: 2 - 0

1:8

Dec 28, 2013 Division 1

Monmouth vs Aberdare Town

Possession: 50% - 57% Cards: 1 - 3

1:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monmouth 44 / 100

Aberdare Town 39 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Monmouth Aberdare Town

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Monmouth or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.9%

1.69

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Monmouth attacking → ← attacking Aberdare Town

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monmouth scored in 65% of their last 20 games.

Aberdare Town let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Monmouth went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Aberdare Town lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 34

0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cardiff Metropolitan University	30	19	5	6	63:26	62
2	Barry Town	30	16	10	4	62:33	58
3	Goytre AFC	30	17	5	8	72:36	56
4	Caerau Ely	30	15	5	10	59:43	50
5	Cambrian United	30	15	5	10	48:39	50
6	Taffs Well	30	14	5	11	57:51	47
7	Goytre Utd	30	13	4	13	45:47	43
8	Afan Lido	30	11	9	10	53:53	42
9	Ton Pentre	30	12	4	14	45:52	40
10	Risca United	30	12	3	15	48:48	39
11	Penybont	30	11	6	13	53:56	39
12	Monmouth	30	10	9	11	56:60	39
13	Briton Ferry	30	10	9	11	41:49	39
14	Aberdare Town	30	11	4	15	34:56	37
15	Aberbargoed Buds	30	8	3	19	42:63	27
16	Garden Village	30	1	4	25	27:93	7