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Monmouth vs Cwmamman United

Wales Wales

FA Cup 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Monmouth play Cwmamman United in the FA Cup 2021/2022. It looks like a close match. Recently, Monmouth averaged 1.53 goals scored and 2.18 conceded. Cwmamman United averaged 0.95 goals scored and 2.36 conceded. In past meetings, Monmouth won 2, Cwmamman United won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Aug 14, 2021 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.63 for Monmouth and 0.26 for Cwmamman United. This points to a Monmouth double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Monmouth
17%
Draws
29%
Cwmamman United
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Monmouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Monmouth picked up more points recently compared to Cwmamman United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.63 vs 0.26 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Monmouth Clean Sheet 34%
Cwmamman United Clean Sheet 21%
First Half Goal 84%
Second Half Goal 88%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monmouth Cwmamman United
Matches Played 17 22
Wins 5 4
Draws 1 3
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.53 0.95
Goals Conceded 2.18 2.36
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2021 FA Cup
Monmouth vs Cwmamman United
3:1
Apr 18, 2018 Division 1
Monmouth vs Cwmamman United
1:1
Apr 14, 2018 Division 1
Cwmamman United vs Monmouth
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monmouth 55 / 100
Cwmamman United 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monmouth Cwmamman United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monmouth Win (1)
Secondary Pick Monmouth & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.2%
2.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Monmouth attacking → ← attacking Cwmamman United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monmouth scored in 65% of their last 17 games.

Cwmamman United let in goals in 95% of their last 22 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Monmouth went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Cwmamman United lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

16 Points in last 5 15
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
0.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88