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Stadium Background

Monopoli vs Casarano

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 Stadio Vito Simone Veneziani, Monopoli
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Chirico C.
(Penalty)
57' Event
Ronco D.
60'
Cerbone S.

AI Match Summary

Monopoli in this Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monopoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Monopoli
33%
Draws
40%
Casarano
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Casarano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Casarano have won more games recently than Monopoli.
  • Model gives Casarano a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Monopoli have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Monopoli Clean Sheet 11%
Casarano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monopoli Casarano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.88 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Monopoli vs Casarano
0:2
Mar 9, 2026 Serie C - Group C
Monopoli vs Casarano
2:1
Nov 1, 2025 Serie C - Group C
Casarano vs Monopoli
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monopoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronco D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Longo S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Casarano Compare

Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monopoli 27 / 100
Casarano 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monopoli Casarano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monopoli scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Casarano conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Monopoli has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Monopoli VS Casarano
0.88 Goals Scored 2.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Monopoli

(Home)
03 May
Monopoli
0 : 2
Casarano
26 Apr
Potenza
2 : 2
Monopoli
19 Apr
Monopoli
1 : 0
Foggia
12 Apr
Atalanta U23
2 : 0
Monopoli
04 Apr
Monopoli
1 : 1
Trapani
Page 1 of 6

Casarano

(Away)
20 May
Union Brescia
0 : 0
Casarano
17 May
Casarano
0 : 3
Union Brescia
13 May
Renate
0 : 3
Casarano
10 May
Casarano
0 : 2
Renate
06 May
Cosenza
1 : 5
Casarano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Benevento38257674:2882
2Catania381913654:2570
3Salernitana38209950:4269
4Cosenza381910958:4067
5Casertana381991055:4466
6Crotone381871359:4061
7Monopoli3815111239:4156
8Casarano381681456:5756
9Audace Cerignola3814121250:5454
10Potenza3812131354:5649
11Atalanta U233811121553:5045
12Altamura3811121532:4945
13Latina3810121635:4442
14Cavese389151436:4242
15Picerno389131643:5540
16Sorrento389121739:5539
17Giugliano389101935:5237
18Foggia38692328:6027
19Siracusa389101948:5726
20Trapani3813101547:5424
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)