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Stadium Background

Monopoli vs Casarano

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 Stadio Vito Simone Veneziani, Monopoli
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Chirico C.
(Penalty)
57' Event
Ronco D.
60'
Cerbone S.

AI Match Summary

Monopoli in this Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monopoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Monopoli
20%
Draws
51%
Casarano
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Casarano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Casarano have won more games recently than Monopoli.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Monopoli have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Monopoli Clean Sheet 14%
Casarano Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monopoli Casarano
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 0.5 2.25
Goals Conceded 1 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Monopoli vs Casarano
0:2
Mar 9, 2026 Serie C - Group C
Monopoli vs Casarano
2:1
Nov 1, 2025 Serie C - Group C
Casarano vs Monopoli
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monopoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Ronco D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Longo S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Casarano Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monopoli 31 / 100
Casarano 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monopoli Casarano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monopoli scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Casarano conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Monopoli has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Monopoli VS Casarano
0.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Monopoli

(Home)
03 Aug
Monopoli
0 : 1
Vibonese
03 May
Monopoli
0 : 2
Casarano
26 Apr
Potenza
2 : 2
Monopoli
19 Apr
Monopoli
1 : 0
Foggia
12 Apr
Atalanta U23
2 : 0
Monopoli
Page 1 of 6

Casarano

(Away)
20 May
Union Brescia
0 : 0
Casarano
17 May
Casarano
0 : 3
Union Brescia
13 May
Renate
0 : 3
Casarano
10 May
Casarano
0 : 2
Renate
06 May
Cosenza
1 : 5
Casarano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Benevento 38 25 7 6 74:28 82
2 Catania 38 19 13 6 54:25 70
3 Salernitana 38 20 9 9 50:42 69
4 Cosenza 38 19 10 9 58:40 67
5 Casertana 38 19 9 10 55:44 66
6 Crotone 38 18 7 13 59:40 61
7 Monopoli 38 15 11 12 39:41 56
8 Casarano 38 16 8 14 56:57 56
9 Audace Cerignola 38 14 12 12 50:54 54
10 Potenza 38 12 13 13 54:56 49
11 Atalanta U23 38 11 12 15 53:50 45
12 Altamura 38 11 12 15 32:49 45
13 Latina 38 10 12 16 35:44 42
14 Cavese 38 9 15 14 36:42 42
15 Picerno 38 9 13 16 43:55 40
16 Sorrento 38 9 12 17 39:55 39
17 Giugliano 38 9 10 19 35:52 37
18 Foggia 38 6 9 23 28:60 27
19 Siracusa 38 9 10 19 48:57 26
20 Trapani 38 13 10 15 47:54 24
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)