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Monte Azul vs Sertaozinho Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Luketa
75' Event
Luketa

AI Match Summary

Sertaozinho in this Paulista A2 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sertaozinho.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Monte Azul
15%
Draws
64%
Sertaozinho
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sertaozinho

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

21% / Low Confidence
  • Sertaozinho have won more games recently than Monte Azul.
  • Model gives Monte Azul a 21% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Monte Azul Clean Sheet 68%
Sertaozinho Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monte Azul Sertaozinho
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 8 11
Draws 12 9
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.09 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2026 Paulista A2
Monte Azul vs Sertaozinho
0:2
Apr 12, 2025 Paulista A3
Monte Azul vs Sertaozinho
1:1
Apr 9, 2025 Paulista A3
Sertaozinho vs Monte Azul
3:1
Mar 5, 2025 Paulista A3
Monte Azul vs Sertaozinho
1:1
Mar 7, 2021 Paulista A2
Monte Azul vs Sertaozinho
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monte Azul Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Sertaozinho Compare

Top Goalscorer Luketa
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monte Azul 59 / 100
Sertaozinho 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monte Azul Sertaozinho

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monte Azul Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monte Azul found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (33 games).

Sertaozinho has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Sertaozinho has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Monte Azul VS Sertaozinho
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Monte Azul

(Home)
07 Mar
Ituano
3 : 3
Monte Azul
04 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 2
Sertaozinho
01 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 1
Agua Santa
25 Feb
Monte Azul
1 : 3
Juventus-SP
22 Feb
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Monte Azul
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Sertaozinho

(Away)
15 Apr
Sao Jose EC
5 : 0
Sertaozinho
08 Apr
Sertaozinho
0 : 1
Ferroviaria
28 Mar
Sertaozinho
0 : 2
Juventus-SP
22 Mar
Juventus-SP
2 : 1
Sertaozinho
19 Mar
Ferroviaria
1 : 2
Sertaozinho
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Agua Santa 15 10 1 4 24:14 31
2 Ferroviaria 15 8 4 3 22:12 28
3 Ituano 15 8 4 3 22:14 28
4 Sao Jose EC 15 8 3 4 21:13 27
5 Sertaozinho 15 7 4 4 19:19 25
6 Votuporanguense 15 7 3 5 16:17 24
7 Juventus-SP 15 6 5 4 22:20 23
8 Piracicaba 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
9 Osasco Sporting 15 5 7 3 22:18 22
10 Santo Andre 15 5 3 7 16:22 18
11 Taubate 15 3 8 4 22:23 17
12 Internacional de Limeira 15 4 4 7 15:18 16
13 Linense 15 2 7 6 12:18 13
14 Monte Azul 15 2 6 7 17:22 12
15 Gremio Prudente 15 1 9 5 12:16 12
16 Sao Bento 15 1 2 12 8:25 5
Promotion - Paulista A2 (Second stage)
Relegation - Paulista A3 (Main)