Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montebelluna vs Fontanafredda

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2015/2016
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Montebelluna advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Montebelluna
30%
Draws
47%
Fontanafredda
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fontanafredda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Fontanafredda haven't matched Montebelluna's recent run of results.
  • Fontanafredda are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Montebelluna have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Montebelluna, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Montebelluna Clean Sheet 20%
Fontanafredda Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montebelluna Fontanafredda
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 6
Draws 9 12
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2016 Serie D - Group C
Montebelluna vs Fontanafredda
2:0
Jan 6, 2016 Serie D - Group C
Montebelluna vs Fontanafredda
2:0
Sep 6, 2015 Serie D - Group C
Fontanafredda vs Montebelluna
0:2
Apr 19, 2015 Serie D - Group C
Montebelluna vs Fontanafredda
0:0
Dec 7, 2014 Serie D - Group C
Fontanafredda vs Montebelluna
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montebelluna 24 / 100
Fontanafredda 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montebelluna Fontanafredda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fontanafredda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fontanafredda has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Montebelluna scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Montebelluna has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Montebelluna VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Montebelluna

(Home)
05 May
Clodiense
2 : 0
Montebelluna
28 Apr
Montebelluna
3 : 2
Cjarlins Muzane
21 Apr
Breno
3 : 2
Montebelluna
14 Apr
Montebelluna
0 : 0
Montecchio Maggiore
07 Apr
Treviso
2 : 0
Montebelluna
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Fontanafredda

(Away)
22 May
Montebelluna
2 : 0
Fontanafredda
08 May
Fontanafredda
3 : 2
Calvi Noale
01 May
Tamai
3 : 3
Fontanafredda
24 Apr
Fontanafredda
0 : 0
Campodarsego
17 Apr
Abano
0 : 2
Fontanafredda
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Montebelluna 2
Fontanafredda 0
Triestina 1
Liventina 1