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Montecasillas vs CD Algar

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Antonio J.
60' Event
Rossetto D.
79' Event
Riquelme I.

AI Match Summary

Montecasillas in this Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montecasillas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Montecasillas
15%
Draws
21%
CD Algar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montecasillas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

21% / Low Confidence
  • CD Algar haven't matched Montecasillas's recent run of results.
  • 21% — that's where the model lands on CD Algar taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 53.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Montecasillas Clean Sheet 10%
CD Algar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montecasillas CD Algar
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 6
Draws 2 6
Losses 21 18
Goals Scored 0.93 0.83
Goals Conceded 2.57 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.07
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Montecasillas vs CD Algar
3:1
Nov 26, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
CD Algar vs Montecasillas
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montecasillas Compare

Top Goalscorer Antonio J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Riquelme I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

CD Algar Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossetto D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.15

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montecasillas 22 / 100
CD Algar 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montecasillas CD Algar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Algar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

CD Algar let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.50 goals per match.

Montecasillas scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Away concern: CD Algar has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Montecasillas VS CD Algar
1 Goals Scored 1
3.14 Goals Conceded 2.38
71% Over 1.5 75%
71% Over 2.5 63%
57% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Montecasillas

(Home)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
04 May
Montecasillas
1 : 3
Molinense
01 May
Caravaca
8 : 0
Montecasillas
27 Apr
Montecasillas
1 : 7
Lorca Deportiva
21 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 0
Montecasillas
Page 1 of 6

CD Algar

(Away)
27 Sept
CD Algar
1 : 2
Deportivo Maritimo
20 Sept
Santomera
2 : 0
CD Algar
13 Sept
CD Algar
0 : 3
Bullas Deportivo
05 Sept
CA Pulpileno
2 : 0
CD Algar
24 Aug
CD Algar
0 : 0
Minerva
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)