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Montecasillas vs Ciudad Cieza Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Riquelme I.
89'
Ballester S.

AI Match Summary

Montecasillas in this Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montecasillas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Montecasillas
20%
Draws
58%
Ciudad Cieza
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ciudad Cieza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ciudad Cieza lately — more wins on the board than Montecasillas.
  • Model gives Ciudad Cieza a 58% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Montecasillas Clean Sheet 20%
Ciudad Cieza Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montecasillas Ciudad Cieza
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 15
Draws 2 10
Losses 21 6
Goals Scored 0.93 1.77
Goals Conceded 2.57 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Montecasillas vs Ciudad Cieza
1:0
Oct 29, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Ciudad Cieza vs Montecasillas
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montecasillas Compare

Top Goalscorer Riquelme I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Ciudad Cieza Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montecasillas 10 / 100
Ciudad Cieza 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montecasillas Ciudad Cieza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ciudad Cieza Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Montecasillas's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Ciudad Cieza has conceded goals in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Montecasillas has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Ciudad Cieza
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montecasillas

(Home)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
04 May
Montecasillas
1 : 3
Molinense
01 May
Caravaca
8 : 0
Montecasillas
27 Apr
Montecasillas
1 : 7
Lorca Deportiva
21 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 0
Montecasillas
Page 1 of 6

Ciudad Cieza

(Away)
27 Sept
Ciudad Cieza
1 : 1
Baleares
19 Sept
Castellonense
1 : 0
Ciudad Cieza
13 Sept
Ciudad Cieza
1 : 0
Ilicitano
05 Sept
Alcoyano
1 : 1
Ciudad Cieza
22 Aug
Santomera
1 : 2
Ciudad Cieza
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)