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Montehermoso vs Gevora

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Zambrano D.
19' Event
Perera Gomez I.
75' Event
Bachuri J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Montehermoso and Gevora finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gevora.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Montehermoso
20%
Draws
64%
Gevora
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gevora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Montehermoso haven't matched Gevora's recent run of results.
  • 64% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 10%
Gevora Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montehermoso Gevora
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 5 6
Draws 7 6
Losses 18 16
Goals Scored 0.77 0.93
Goals Conceded 2 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Gevora
1:3
Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Gevora vs Montehermoso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montehermoso Compare

Top Goalscorer Zambrano D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Gevora Compare

Top Goalscorer Perera Gomez I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bachuri J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.81
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montehermoso 30 / 100
Gevora 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montehermoso Gevora

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gevora Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Montehermoso scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Gevora has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Gevora's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Montehermoso VS Gevora
0.71 Goals Scored 1.13
2.86 Goals Conceded 1.5
86% Over 1.5 88%
86% Over 2.5 63%
57% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montehermoso

(Home)
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1
Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0
Montehermoso
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Gevora

(Away)
13 Sept
Gevora
4 : 2
UP Plasencia
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0
Gevora
08 Aug
Cacereno
2 : 1
Gevora
10 May
CD Badajoz
3 : 0
Gevora
03 May
Gevora
1 : 1
Pueblonuevo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)