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Montehermoso vs Pueblonuevo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Goore T.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Montehermoso and Pueblonuevo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montehermoso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Montehermoso
35%
Draws
49%
Pueblonuevo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pueblonuevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Pueblonuevo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Pueblonuevo a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 10%
Pueblonuevo Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montehermoso Pueblonuevo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 8
Draws 7 7
Losses 18 14
Goals Scored 0.77 1
Goals Conceded 2 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 1.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Pueblonuevo
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Pueblonuevo vs Montehermoso
1:1
Mar 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Pueblonuevo vs Montehermoso
1:1
Nov 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Pueblonuevo
1:0
Mar 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Pueblonuevo vs Montehermoso
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montehermoso Compare

Top Goalscorer Goore T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4

Pueblonuevo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.09

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montehermoso 22 / 100
Pueblonuevo 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montehermoso Pueblonuevo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pueblonuevo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Montehermoso scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Pueblonuevo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Solid form: Montehermoso remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Montehermoso VS Pueblonuevo
0.83 Goals Scored 1.25
2.67 Goals Conceded 0.75
83% Over 1.5 63%
83% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montehermoso

(Home)
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1
Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0
Montehermoso
Page 1 of 6

Pueblonuevo

(Away)
03 Oct
Pueblonuevo
0 : 0
Puebla de la Calzada
27 Sept
Gevora
3 : 1
Pueblonuevo
20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
CD Zafra
4 : 1
Pueblonuevo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)