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Montenegro vs Latvia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League
Thu, Nov 12, 2026
VS
07:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montenegro host Latvia in the UEFA Nations League. This one's hard to separate. Montenegro have averaged 1.23 scored and 1.53 conceded recently, against Latvia's 0.57 scored and 1.43 conceded. Head-to-head, Montenegro have won 2 to Latvia's 0, with 3 draws. They last met on Oct 2, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.75 vs 1.00, favoring Montenegro. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Montenegro
30%
Draws
6%
Latvia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Montenegro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Montenegro have won more games recently than Latvia.
  • Model gives Montenegro a 64% chance of winning this.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Montenegro Clean Sheet 20%
Latvia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montenegro Latvia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 5
Draws 3 8
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.23 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Latvia vs Montenegro
1:2
Sep 7, 2021 World Championship
Montenegro vs Latvia
0:0
Mar 24, 2021 World Championship
Latvia vs Montenegro
1:2
Oct 7, 2020 Friendly International
Montenegro vs Latvia
1:1
Mar 26, 2020 Friendly International
Montenegro vs Latvia
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montenegro 85 / 100
Latvia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montenegro Latvia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montenegro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montenegro went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Montenegro found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Latvia conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Montenegro VS Latvia
2 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montenegro

(Home)
05 Oct
Montenegro
0 : 0
Armenia
02 Oct
Latvia
1 : 2
Montenegro
28 Sept
Armenia
2 : 3
Montenegro
25 Sept
Montenegro
2 : 1
Cyprus
05 Jun
Slovakia
2 : 2
Montenegro
Page 1 of 6

Latvia

(Away)
05 Oct
Cyprus
2 : 1
Latvia
02 Oct
Latvia
1 : 2
Montenegro
28 Sept
Latvia
0 : 0
Cyprus
25 Sept
Armenia
2 : 0
Latvia
09 Jun
Latvia
0 : 1
Faroe Islands
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Albania 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
2 Belarus 4 2 1 1 5:2 7
3 Finland 4 2 1 1 9:2 7
4 San Marino 4 0 0 4 1:16 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montenegro 4 3 1 0 7:4 10
2 Cyprus 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
3 Armenia 4 1 1 2 4:5 4
4 Latvia 4 0 1 3 2:6 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Slovakia 4 3 1 0 9:2 10
2 Faroe Islands 4 0 4 0 5:5 4
3 Moldova 4 1 1 2 3:8 4
4 Kazakhstan 4 0 2 2 5:7 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Iceland 4 2 2 0 7:1 8
2 Estonia 4 1 3 0 2:1 6
3 Bulgaria 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
4 Luxembourg 4 1 0 3 2:7 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League B/C)