Sport Picks

Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Stadion Gradski

Wales

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Montenegro play Wales in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Montenegro averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Wales averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Montenegro won 2, Wales won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 14, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Montenegro and 1.94 for Wales. This points to a Wales double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Montenegro

15%

Draws

46%

Wales

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wales

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Montenegro picked up more points recently compared to Wales.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 54%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Montenegro Clean Sheet 10%

Wales Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Montenegro	Wales
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	12	12
Draws	3	10
Losses	15	8
Goals Scored	1.27	1.6
Goals Conceded	1.67	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2024 UEFA Nations League

Wales vs Montenegro

Possession: 57% - 41% Cards: 3 - 0

1:0

Sep 9, 2024 UEFA Nations League

Montenegro vs Wales

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 2 - 1

1:2

Sep 2, 2011 Euro

Wales vs Montenegro

Possession: 46% - 50% Cards: 1 - 4

2:1

Sep 3, 2010 Euro

Montenegro vs Wales

Possession: 52% - 45% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Aug 12, 2009 Friendly International

Montenegro vs Wales

Possession: 44% - 50% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montenegro Compare

Top Goalscorer Camaj D.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Wales Compare

Top Goalscorer Moore K.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Wilson H.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.48

Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montenegro 37 / 100

Wales 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Montenegro Wales

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wales or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.3%

2.08

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Montenegro attacking → ← attacking Wales

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montenegro scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Wales let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Montenegro went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Wales lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 46

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Czech Republic	6	3	2	1	9:8	11
2	Ukraine	6	2	2	2	8:8	8
3	Georgia	6	2	1	3	7:6	7
4	Albania	6	2	1	3	4:6	7

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	England	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Greece	6	5	1	11:4	15
3	Ireland	6	2	4	3:12	6
4	Finland	6	0	6	2:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	6	4	1	1	15:7	13
2	Austria	6	3	2	1	14:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	2	2	2	7:9	8
4	Kazakhstan	6	0	1	5	0:15	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wales	6	3	3	0	9:4	12
2	Turkey	6	3	2	1	9:6	11
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	10:13	7
4	Montenegro	6	1	0	5	4:9	3