Sport Picks

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Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights

USA USA

USL Cup Cardinale Stadium
Sun, Jul 12, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Monterey Bay play Las Vegas Lights in the USL Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Monterey Bay averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.68 conceded. Las Vegas Lights averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. In past meetings, Monterey Bay won 1, Las Vegas Lights won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 29, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Monterey Bay and 1.50 for Las Vegas Lights. This points to a Las Vegas Lights double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Monterey Bay
29%
Draws
37%
Las Vegas Lights
Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Las Vegas Lights

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Monterey Bay picked up more points recently compared to Las Vegas Lights.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 16%
Las Vegas Lights Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monterey Bay Las Vegas Lights
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 6 7
Draws 7 7
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.93 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay
1:0
Oct 26, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay
2:0
Sep 15, 2024 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay
0:0
Apr 14, 2024 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights
3:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monterey Bay 34 / 100
Las Vegas Lights 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monterey Bay Las Vegas Lights

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Las Vegas Lights or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Monterey Bay attacking → ← attacking Las Vegas Lights

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monterey Bay scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Las Vegas Lights let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Monterey Bay went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Las Vegas Lights lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 28
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sacramento Republic33007:18
2Spokane Velocity32013:56
3Athletic Club Boise32017:65
4Oakland Roots31023:34
5Monterey Bay31026:73
6Las Vegas Lights30031:51
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Colorado Springs33007:19
2El Paso Locomotive32015:36
3New Mexico32016:56
4AV Alta FC31023:53
5Phoenix Rising31022:63
6Orange County SC30033:60
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1San Antonio FC33004:18
2Birmingham Legion32015:26
3One Knoxville32014:34
4FC Tulsa31023:44
5Corpus Christi FC31021:43
6Chattanooga Red Wolves30032:52
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Louisville City33009:28
2Indy Eleven43017:47
3Lexington32016:46
4Union Omaha32017:86
5Detroit City31022:35
6Fort Wayne30035:101
7Forward Madison30032:70
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Hartford Athletic32016:27
2Brooklyn FC32018:36
3Rhode Island32015:25
4Portland Hearts of Pine31025:94
5New York Cosmos31024:93
6Westchester SC31025:82
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Charleston33007:18
2Charlotte Independence33005:28
3Pittsburgh Riverhounds31024:35
4Loudoun United31024:53
5Greenville Triumph31023:53
6Richmond Kickers30031:80
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tampa Bay33008:19
2Miami FC32016:56
3Sporting Jax41033:54
4Sarasota Paradise31022:43
5FC Naples31023:72