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Stadium Background

Monterey Bay vs FC Tulsa

USA USA

USL Championship Cardinale Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Belmar J.
25' Event
Paul I.
36'
Paul I.

AI Match Summary

FC Tulsa in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Tulsa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Monterey Bay
22%
Draws
18%
FC Tulsa
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Monterey Bay

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FC Tulsa lately — more wins on the board than Monterey Bay.
  • Win probability leans Monterey Bay's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • FC Tulsa have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 18%
FC Tulsa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monterey Bay FC Tulsa
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 6 14
Draws 6 6
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 1.75 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 18, 2026 USL Championship
FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay
2:0
May 3, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs FC Tulsa
1:2
Aug 7, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs FC Tulsa
2:3
Jul 17, 2025 USL Championship
FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay
2:1
Oct 27, 2024 USL Championship
FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monterey Bay Compare

Top Goalscorer Paul I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

FC Tulsa Compare

Top Goalscorer Kocevski J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monterey Bay 58 / 100
FC Tulsa 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monterey Bay FC Tulsa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Monterey Bay scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: Monterey Bay remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

FC Tulsa lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monterey Bay VS FC Tulsa
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tampa Bay1594224:1231
2Charleston1582530:2126
3Detroit City1473421:1424
4Louisville City1573525:2224
5Indy Eleven1263318:1221
6Pittsburgh Riverhounds1362515:1520
7Hartford Athletic1447312:1319
8Miami FC1546518:2418
9Rhode Island1344523:1816
10Birmingham Legion1528516:1914
11Brooklyn FC1433815:2412
12Loudoun United1418517:2811
13Sporting Jax15041119:414
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Orange County SC1677225:1828
2San Antonio FC1567220:1725
3New Mexico1363415:1421
4Oakland Roots1556424:2221
5Colorado Springs1454524:2219
6Sacramento Republic1354415:1319
7El Paso Locomotive1454525:2419
8FC Tulsa1354417:1619
9Lexington1353521:1618
10Phoenix Rising1545620:2217
11Las Vegas Lights1443721:2515
12Monterey Bay1543814:2215