Sport Picks
Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Cardinale Stadium, Seaside, CA 
Match Events
27'
27'
Brewitt T.
39'
39'
Paul I.
48'
48'
Brewitt T.
AI Match Summary
Orange County SC in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Orange County SC.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Monterey Bay
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Orange County SC have won more games recently than Monterey Bay.
- Monterey Bay are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Monterey Bay have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Monterey Bay Clean Sheet 16%
Orange County SC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Monterey Bay | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 6 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 17 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.83 | 1.76 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 4, 2026 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay
1:2
Jul 26, 2026 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC
1:2
Jul 12, 2025 USL Championship
Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC
2:1
Jun 1, 2025 USL Cup
Monterey Bay vs Orange County SC
3:2
Mar 23, 2025 USL Championship
Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Monterey Bay Compare
Top Goalscorer Paul I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Orange County SC Compare
Top Goalscorer Brewitt T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Monterey Bay 84 / 100
Orange County SC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Monterey Bay Orange County SC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Monterey Bay Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Monterey Bay found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).
Orange County SC let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.
Monterey Bay has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Monterey Bay VS Orange County SC
1 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 2.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Monterey Bay
(Home) 04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Charleston
1 : 0 Monterey Bay
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
06 Sept
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Phoenix Rising
30 Aug
Monterey Bay
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
09 Aug
Monterey Bay
2 : 5 New Mexico
26 Jul
Monterey Bay
1 : 2 Orange County SC
Page 1 of 3
Orange County SC
(Away) 04 Oct
Orange County SC
1 : 2 Monterey Bay
27 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
06 Sept
Orange County SC
1 : 1 Sacramento Republic
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
30 Aug
Oakland Roots
1 : 1 Orange County SC
26 Jul
Monterey Bay
1 : 2 Orange County SC
08 Jul
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2 Orange County SC
04 Jul
Rhode Island
1 : 1 Orange County SC
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 3 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49:33 | 44 |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32:25 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
