Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montevarchi vs Camaiore Calcio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Galeota A.
51' Event
Tommasini E.

AI Match Summary

Montevarchi in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Montevarchi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Montevarchi
35%
Draws
13%
Camaiore Calcio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Montevarchi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Montevarchi have won more games recently than Camaiore Calcio.
  • Montevarchi are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 68%
Camaiore Calcio Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevarchi Camaiore Calcio
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 14 6
Losses 5 16
Goals Scored 0.9 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.66 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.12 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Camaiore Calcio
2:0
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Camaiore Calcio vs Montevarchi
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevarchi Compare

Top Goalscorer Galeota A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tommasini E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.86
Avg xA / game 0.56

Camaiore Calcio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevarchi 95 / 100
Camaiore Calcio 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevarchi Camaiore Calcio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montevarchi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Montevarchi's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Camaiore Calcio has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Montevarchi has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Montevarchi VS Camaiore Calcio
0.38 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.86
25% Over 1.5 71%
0% Over 2.5 43%
0% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevarchi

(Home)
16 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 1
Montevarchi
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1
Tau
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1
Montevarchi
19 Aug
Montevarchi
0 : 0
Figline
13 Aug
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Grassina
Page 1 of 6

Camaiore Calcio

(Away)
10 May
Follonica Gavorrano
3 : 2
Camaiore Calcio
03 May
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
0 : 0
Camaiore Calcio
26 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
2 : 5
Siena
19 Apr
Terranuova Traiana
2 : 1
Camaiore Calcio
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1
Poggibonsi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)