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Montevarchi vs FC Ponsacco

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2019/2020 Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Martinelli S.
46' Event
Giustarini M.
78' Event
Essoussi A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2019/2020 game between Montevarchi and FC Ponsacco finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montevarchi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Montevarchi
20%
Draws
38%
FC Ponsacco
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Montevarchi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Montevarchi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Montevarchi a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 20%
FC Ponsacco Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevarchi FC Ponsacco
Matches Played 36 22
Wins 12 1
Draws 16 4
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 0.75 0
Goals Conceded 0.63 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 5, 2020 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs FC Ponsacco
4:0
Sep 1, 2019 Serie D - Group E
FC Ponsacco vs Montevarchi
3:0
May 12, 2019 Serie D - Group E
FC Ponsacco vs Montevarchi
2:2
Feb 13, 2019 Serie D - Group E
FC Ponsacco vs Montevarchi
1:1
Oct 24, 2018 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs FC Ponsacco
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevarchi Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinelli S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Giustarini M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

FC Ponsacco Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevarchi 42 / 100
FC Ponsacco 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevarchi FC Ponsacco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Ponsacco's defensive record shows goals conceded in 95% of 22 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Montevarchi remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: FC Ponsacco registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montevarchi VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%