Sport Picks
Match Events
43'
43'
Francalanci L.
90'
90'
Manfredi L.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
42%
20%
38%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Montevarchi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
67%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Foligno lately — more wins on the board than Montevarchi.
- Win probability leans Montevarchi's way, sitting at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 68%
Foligno Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Montevarchi | Foligno |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 11 |
| Draws | 13 | 8 |
| Losses | 7 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.38 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.38 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Foligno
1:1
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Montevarchi
4:2
Apr 14, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Foligno
3:0
Dec 23, 2020 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Montevarchi
2:1
Apr 26, 2020 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Foligno
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Montevarchi Compare
Top Goalscorer Francalanci L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Foligno Compare
Top Goalscorer Manfredi L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Montevarchi 51 / 100
Foligno 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Montevarchi Foligno
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Foligno has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Montevarchi has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Attacking prowess: Montevarchi scored in 55% of their last 29 outings.
Scoring Trends
Montevarchi VS Foligno
0.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Montevarchi
(Home) 03 May
Prato
1 : 0 Montevarchi
26 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0 Montevarchi
12 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 1 Terranuova Traiana
02 Apr
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
0 : 0 Montevarchi
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26 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
12 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 1 Terranuova Traiana
28 Mar
Montevarchi
1 : 1 Poggibonsi
15 Mar
Montevarchi
2 : 0 Tau
22 Feb
Montevarchi
2 : 0 Camaiore Calcio
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Foligno
(Away) 03 May
Foligno
1 : 0 Cannara
26 Apr
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0 Foligno
19 Apr
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 0 Foligno
12 Apr
Foligno
0 : 2 Prato
02 Apr
Ghiviborgo
0 : 0 Foligno
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26 Apr
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0 Foligno
19 Apr
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 0 Foligno
02 Apr
Ghiviborgo
0 : 0 Foligno
22 Mar
Siena
3 : 2 Foligno
01 Mar
Terranuova Traiana
2 : 0 Foligno
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosseto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 58:25 | 72 |
| 2 | Tau | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 53:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Prato | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 49:29 | 63 |
| 4 | Siena | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 57:35 | 60 |
| 5 | Seravezza Pozzi | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:29 | 57 |
| 6 | Terranuova Traiana | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 28:30 | 51 |
| 7 | Foligno | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45:37 | 51 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 39:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Montevarchi | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28:32 | 46 |
| 10 | Sporting Trestina | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 40:42 | 42 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Ghiviborgo | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:44 | 40 |
| 13 | Orvietana | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:37 | 38 |
| 14 | Follonica Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:49 | 37 |
| 15 | Camaiore Calcio | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:54 | 35 |
| 16 | Poggibonsi | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:46 | 31 |
| 17 | Cannara | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24:59 | 26 |
| 18 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro | 34 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 20:46 | 22 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)
