Sport Picks
Montevarchi vs Poggibonsi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 
Match Events
77'
77'
Boriosi M.
87'
87'
90'
90'
Bocci T.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 game between Montevarchi and Poggibonsi finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Montevarchi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Montevarchi come out ahead of Poggibonsi on wins alone.
- 42% — that's where the model lands on Montevarchi taking it.
- Regular Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 35.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 68%
Poggibonsi Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Montevarchi | Poggibonsi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 32 |
| Wins | 12 | 9 |
| Draws | 14 | 8 |
| Losses | 8 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.79 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Poggibonsi
1:1
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Montevarchi
0:1
Feb 2, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Montevarchi
2:2
Oct 6, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Poggibonsi
2:1
Feb 25, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Montevarchi
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Montevarchi Compare
Top Goalscorer Bocci T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.34
Poggibonsi Compare
Top Goalscorer Boriosi M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.39
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Montevarchi 51 / 100
Poggibonsi 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Montevarchi Poggibonsi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Montevarchi found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (34 games).
Defensive concern: Poggibonsi conceded in 69% of 32 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Montevarchi has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Montevarchi VS Poggibonsi
0.5 Goals Scored 0.67
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.83
38% Over 1.5 33%
13% Over 2.5 17%
0% Over 3.5 17%
Recent Form & Match History
Montevarchi
(Home) 04 Oct
Ternana
4 : 1 Montevarchi
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0 SCD Progresso
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0 Montevarchi
16 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 1 Montevarchi
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1 Tau
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0 SCD Progresso
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1 Tau
19 Aug
Montevarchi
0 : 0 Figline
13 Aug
Montevarchi
1 : 0 Grassina
26 Apr
Montevarchi
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
Page 1 of 4
Poggibonsi
(Away) 10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0 Poggibonsi
03 May
Poggibonsi
1 : 0 Scandicci
26 Apr
Cannara
3 : 2 Poggibonsi
19 Apr
Poggibonsi
0 : 0 Tau
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1 Poggibonsi
Page 1 of 7
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0 Poggibonsi
26 Apr
Cannara
3 : 2 Poggibonsi
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1 Poggibonsi
28 Mar
Montevarchi
1 : 1 Poggibonsi
15 Mar
Seravezza Pozzi
2 : 2 Poggibonsi
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosseto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 58:25 | 72 |
| 2 | Tau | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 53:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Prato | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 49:29 | 63 |
| 4 | Siena | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 57:35 | 60 |
| 5 | Seravezza Pozzi | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:29 | 57 |
| 6 | Terranuova Traiana | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 28:30 | 51 |
| 7 | Foligno | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45:37 | 51 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 39:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Montevarchi | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28:32 | 46 |
| 10 | Sporting Trestina | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 40:42 | 42 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Ghiviborgo | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:44 | 40 |
| 13 | Orvietana | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:37 | 38 |
| 14 | Follonica Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:49 | 37 |
| 15 | Camaiore Calcio | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:54 | 35 |
| 16 | Poggibonsi | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:46 | 31 |
| 17 | Cannara | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24:59 | 26 |
| 18 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro | 34 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 20:46 | 22 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)
