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Montevarchi vs Rondinella - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montevarchi host Rondinella in the Serie D - Group E. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Montevarchi at 0.91 goals for, 0.73 against; Rondinella at 0.83 for, 1.67 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (0.96 xG vs 0.73) point toward Montevarchi. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Montevarchi
20%
Draws
29%
Rondinella
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Montevarchi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Montevarchi lately — more wins on the board than Rondinella.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Montevarchi taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 47.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 68%
Rondinella Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevarchi Rondinella
Matches Played 33 6
Wins 12 1
Draws 14 2
Losses 7 3
Goals Scored 0.91 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.96 0.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevarchi 68 / 100
Rondinella 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevarchi Rondinella

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montevarchi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montevarchi's goal record stands at 61% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Rondinella let in goals in 67% of their last 6 matches.

Solid form: Montevarchi remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Rondinella lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montevarchi VS Rondinella
0.5 Goals Scored 0.71
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.43
38% Over 1.5 57%
13% Over 2.5 57%
0% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevarchi

(Home)
04 Oct
Ternana
4 : 1
Montevarchi
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0
SCD Progresso
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0
Montevarchi
16 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 1
Montevarchi
12 Sept
Montevarchi
4 : 1
Tau
Page 1 of 7

Rondinella

(Away)
04 Oct
Rondinella
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
27 Sept
Tau
3 : 2
Rondinella
20 Sept
Rondinella
0 : 0
Lucchese
16 Sept
Scandicci
3 : 0
Rondinella
13 Sept
Rondinella
1 : 3
Prato
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Follonica Gavorrano 6 4 2 0 9:3 14
2 Prato 6 4 2 0 9:4 14
3 Lucchese 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
4 Tau 6 4 0 2 10:12 12
5 Scandicci 6 3 2 1 10:5 11
6 Flaminia 6 3 2 1 9:9 11
7 Seravezza Pozzi 6 3 1 2 14:5 10
8 Siena 6 3 1 2 13:8 10
9 Ternana 6 2 2 2 9:5 8
10 Terranuova Traiana 6 2 2 2 11:9 8
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
12 Montevarchi 6 2 1 3 9:11 7
13 Mezzolara 6 1 4 1 4:6 7
14 Rondinella 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
15 Sasso Marconi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
16 SCD Progresso 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
17 Grassina 6 0 2 4 6:13 2
18 Ghiviborgo 6 0 1 5 3:10 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)