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Montevideo City vs Cerro Largo Prediction & H2H Stats

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Montes G.
35'
Silvera F.
39'
Obregon E.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Montevideo City and Cerro Largo finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montevideo City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Montevideo City
30%
Draws
23%
Cerro Largo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Montevideo City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Montevideo City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Montevideo City taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 68%
Cerro Largo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevideo City Cerro Largo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 8
Draws 4 10
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.86 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Cerro Largo
2:1
Mar 9, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Montevideo City
0:1
Jan 14, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Montevideo City vs Cerro Largo
2:3
Sep 20, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Cerro Largo
1:0
Mar 25, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerro Largo vs Montevideo City
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevideo City Compare

Top Goalscorer Da Silva N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Obregon E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Cerro Largo Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcel S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevideo City 86 / 100
Cerro Largo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevideo City Cerro Largo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montevideo City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montevideo City found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Cerro Largo conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Montevideo City went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montevideo City VS Cerro Largo
2.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevideo City

(Home)
30 Sept
Montevideo City
1 : 1
Penarol
27 Sept
Montevideo City
0 : 2
Maldonado
24 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 3
Atenas
21 Sept
Central Esp.
1 : 4
Montevideo City
18 Sept
Montevideo City
3 : 0
Cienciano
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Cerro Largo

(Away)
04 Oct
Danubio
2 : 1
Cerro Largo
30 Sept
Cerro Largo
1 : 0
Rentistas
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2
Club Nacional
19 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Cerro Largo
12 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 0
Central Esp.
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 9 6 2 1 17:7 20
2 Montevideo City 9 6 1 2 19:10 19
3 Penarol 9 6 2 1 15:6 19
4 Maldonado 9 5 2 2 13:5 17
5 Club Nacional 9 5 2 2 13:9 17
6 Wanderers 9 4 3 2 12:11 15
7 Juventud 9 3 5 1 10:6 14
8 CA Cerro 9 4 2 3 9:11 14
9 Racing Montevideo 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
10 Progreso 9 4 0 5 9:12 12
11 Boston River 9 2 3 4 10:12 9
12 Defensor Sp. 9 2 2 5 9:16 8
13 Danubio 9 1 4 4 4:10 7
14 Cerro Largo 9 0 5 4 6:12 5
15 Central Esp. 9 1 2 6 5:16 5
16 Albion 9 1 0 8 9:18 3
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)