Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montevideo City vs Club Nacional

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Lecchini R.
32'
Silvera F.
36'
Kociubinski B.

AI Match Summary

Club Nacional in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Club Nacional.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Montevideo City
39%
Draws
31%
Club Nacional
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Club Nacional haven't matched Montevideo City's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Club Nacional here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 68%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevideo City Club Nacional
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 13
Draws 7 5
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 2.13 0.88
Goals Conceded 2 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Club Nacional
1:2
Mar 28, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Club Nacional
2:3
Aug 2, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Montevideo City
5:2
Jun 1, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Club Nacional
1:2
Feb 2, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Club Nacional
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevideo City Compare

Top Goalscorer Lecchini R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Club Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Candido C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Silvera M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevideo City 41 / 100
Club Nacional 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevideo City Club Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MCT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montevideo City's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Club Nacional's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Montevideo City has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Montevideo City VS Club Nacional
2.13 Goals Scored 0.88
2 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevideo City

(Home)
11 Jul
Juventud
1 : 3
Montevideo City
04 Jul
Bahia
4 : 1
Montevideo City
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Albion
1 : 2
Montevideo City
26 May
Gremio
2 : 2
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 6

Club Nacional

(Away)
21 Jul
Club Nacional
0 : 3
Tigre
17 Jul
Club Nacional
1 : 2
Wanderers
11 Jul
Danubio
0 : 0
Club Nacional
06 Jun
Club Nacional
2 : 1
Juventud
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol64119:313
2Cerro Largo52216:28
3Central Esp.52214:38
4Racing Montevideo51403:27
5CA Cerro52034:86
6Liverpool M.51223:45
7Boston River61235:95
8Defensor Sp.50323:63
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wanderers633010:412
2Maldonado632112:611
3Club Nacional63126:710
4Montevideo City530210:99
5Juventud62138:117
6Progreso62045:96
7Albion61234:65
8Danubio50323:63
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)