Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montevideo City vs Club Nacional

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Rodriguez S.
23'
Viera T.
33' Event
Gomez M.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Montevideo City and Club Nacional finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Club Nacional.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Montevideo City
17%
Draws
13%
Club Nacional
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Montevideo City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Montevideo City come out ahead of Club Nacional on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Montevideo City's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Club Nacional have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 68%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevideo City Club Nacional
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 15 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 2.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 2 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 15, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Club Nacional
1:2
Mar 28, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Club Nacional
2:3
Aug 2, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Montevideo City
5:2
Jun 1, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Club Nacional
1:2
Feb 2, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Club Nacional
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevideo City Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Club Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Carneiro G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevideo City 77 / 100
Club Nacional 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevideo City Club Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MCT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montevideo City scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Club Nacional conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Montevideo City remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Montevideo City VS Club Nacional
2.13 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevideo City

(Home)
24 Jul
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
11 Jul
Juventud
1 : 3
Montevideo City
04 Jul
Bahia
4 : 1
Montevideo City
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Albion
1 : 2
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 7

Club Nacional

(Away)
21 Jul
Club Nacional
0 : 3
Tigre
17 Jul
Club Nacional
1 : 2
Wanderers
11 Jul
Danubio
0 : 0
Club Nacional
06 Jun
Club Nacional
2 : 1
Juventud
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Racing Montevideo1594223:1431
2Maldonado1592424:1629
3Albion1584326:1628
4Penarol1583423:1627
5Central Esp.1573523:2224
6Montevideo City1565422:1623
7Club Nacional1571726:2122
8Defensor Sp.1556413:1121
9Liverpool M.1555520:1820
10Wanderers1562716:2120
11Danubio1546517:2118
12Cerro Largo1552816:1917
13Boston River1552814:2017
14Juventud1543817:2215
15Progreso1524912:2310
16CA Cerro152498:2410
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)