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Montijo vs Guadiana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14
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Match Events

14' Event
Alcantara A.
44' Event
Soriano A.
46' Event
Gutierrez I.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 game between Montijo and Guadiana finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montijo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Montijo
15%
Draws
12%
Guadiana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montijo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Montijo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Montijo a 73% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Montijo Clean Sheet 20%
Guadiana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montijo Guadiana
Matches Played 29 5
Wins 10 0
Draws 6 1
Losses 13 4
Goals Scored 1.21 0.4
Goals Conceded 1.34 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 0.92
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Guadiana
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montijo Compare

Top Goalscorer Alcantara A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gutierrez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86

Guadiana Compare

Top Goalscorer Soriano A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montijo 40 / 100
Guadiana 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montijo Guadiana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montijo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadiana let in goals in 100% of their last 5 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Montijo's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Guadiana's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Montijo VS Guadiana
1.63 Goals Scored 0.33
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.83
75% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 33%
50% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Montijo

(Home)
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0
Jaraiz
27 Sept
Villanovense
2 : 0
Montijo
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
Page 1 of 6

Guadiana

(Away)
04 Oct
CD Azuaga
4 : 0
Guadiana
27 Sept
Guadiana
1 : 1
Cabeza del Buey
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
12 Sept
Guadiana
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Guadiana

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
10 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
11 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
12 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
13 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
14 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
15 SP Villafranca 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)