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Montijo vs Jaraiz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Acosta Garrido I.
73' Event
Alcantara A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 game between Montijo and Jaraiz finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montijo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Montijo
15%
Draws
34%
Jaraiz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montijo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Recent numbers put Montijo and Jaraiz close enough that form isn't the deciding factor here.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Montijo Clean Sheet 68%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montijo Jaraiz
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 11 11
Draws 6 12
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.27 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Jaraiz
2:0
Apr 5, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Montijo
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Jaraiz
1:0
May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs Montijo
1:0
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Jaraiz
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montijo Compare

Top Goalscorer Acosta Garrido I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Alcantara A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Jaraiz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montijo 41 / 100
Jaraiz 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montijo Jaraiz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montijo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montijo found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Jaraiz let in goals in 73% of their last 33 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Jaraiz registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montijo VS Jaraiz
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montijo

(Home)
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0
Jaraiz
27 Sept
Villanovense
2 : 0
Montijo
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
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Jaraiz

(Away)
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0
Jaraiz
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1
SP Villafranca
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 4 1 3 0 5:2 6
10 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
11 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
12 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
13 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
14 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
15 SP Villafranca 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)