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Montijo vs Montehermoso

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
de Luis M.
48' Event
Volo L.
52' Event
Peralta C.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Montijo and Montehermoso finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montijo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Montijo
15%
Draws
12%
Montehermoso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montijo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Montijo come out ahead of Montehermoso on wins alone.
  • Model gives Montijo a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Montijo Clean Sheet 68%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montijo Montehermoso
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 18
Goals Scored 1.17 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.31 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Montehermoso
4:0
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Montijo
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montijo Compare

Top Goalscorer Peralta C.
2 Goals
Assists Leader de Luis M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Montehermoso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montijo 95 / 100
Montehermoso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montijo Montehermoso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montijo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montehermoso has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Montijo found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Montehermoso's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Montijo VS Montehermoso
1.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montijo

(Home)
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
10 May
Montijo
2 : 1
Santa Amalia
02 May
CD Azuaga
4 : 2
Montijo
Page 1 of 6

Montehermoso

(Away)
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1
Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0
Montehermoso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)