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Montijo vs Santa Amalia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
10:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montijo host Santa Amalia in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Montijo have averaged 1.24 scored and 1.31 conceded recently, against Santa Amalia's 1.07 scored and 1.72 conceded. Past meetings favor Santa Amalia slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 10, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.38, favoring Montijo. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Montijo
30%
Draws
35%
Santa Amalia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Montijo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Montijo a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Montijo Clean Sheet 17%
Santa Amalia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montijo Santa Amalia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 7
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.24 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Santa Amalia
2:1
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs Montijo
1:0
Apr 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Santa Amalia
1:0
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs Montijo
2:0
Mar 4, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs Montijo
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montijo 36 / 100
Santa Amalia 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montijo Santa Amalia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Amalia let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: Montijo scored in 66% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Montijo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montijo VS Santa Amalia
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Montijo

(Home)
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0
Jaraiz
27 Sept
Villanovense
2 : 0
Montijo
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
13 Sept
CD Azuaga
2 : 0
Montijo
06 Sept
Montijo
1 : 3
Cabeza del Buey
Page 1 of 6

Santa Amalia

(Away)
09 Oct
Santa Amalia
1 : 3
SP Villafranca
27 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Moralo
20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
Santa Amalia
3 : 0
Quintana
06 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 5 1 3 1 6:5 6
10 SP Villafranca 5 2 0 3 7:8 6
11 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
12 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
13 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
14 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
15 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)