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Montpellier vs Chateauroux

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Mendy A.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Fayad K.
55' Event
Mbuku N.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Montpellier and Chateauroux finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montpellier.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Montpellier
22%
Draws
18%
Chateauroux
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Montpellier

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Chateauroux haven't matched Montpellier's recent run of results.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Montpellier taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Montpellier Clean Sheet 19%
Chateauroux Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montpellier Chateauroux
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 7
Draws 6 9
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 2 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2025 Club Friendly
Montpellier vs Chateauroux
4:1
Feb 8, 2012 Coupe de France
Chateauroux vs Montpellier
0:2
Mar 6, 2009 Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Chateauroux
3:0
Nov 11, 2008 Coupe de la Ligue
Montpellier vs Chateauroux
1:2
Sep 27, 2008 Ligue 2
Chateauroux vs Montpellier
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montpellier Compare

Top Goalscorer Fayad K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mbuku N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Chateauroux Compare

Top Goalscorer Goncalves A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montpellier 58 / 100
Chateauroux 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montpellier Chateauroux

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MNT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chateauroux let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Montpellier scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Montpellier went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montpellier VS Chateauroux
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montpellier

(Home)
25 Jul
Clermont
0 : 1
Montpellier
22 Jul
Montpellier
3 : 4
Cannes
17 Jul
Montpellier
5 : 2
Le Puy-en-Velay
11 Jul
Montpellier
3 : 2
Aubagne FC
09 May
Red Star
1 : 1
Montpellier
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Chateauroux

(Away)
15 May
Valenciennes
2 : 2
Chateauroux
09 May
Chateauroux
2 : 1
Sochaux
30 Apr
Dijon
1 : 2
Chateauroux
24 Apr
Chateauroux
0 : 2
Fleury-Merogis
17 Apr
Versailles
4 : 0
Chateauroux
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