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Montrose vs Hamilton

Scotland Scotland

League One Links Park, Montrose
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
McGinty S.
Own Goal
23' Event
McKinstry S.
Assist: MacDonald K.
25' Event
Loudon E.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

Hamilton in this League One matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Hamilton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Montrose
15%
Draws
38%
Hamilton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montrose

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Montrose haven't matched Hamilton's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular League One form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Hamilton have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Montrose Clean Sheet 16%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montrose Hamilton
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 14 17
Draws 4 4
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.71 2.04
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 League One
Montrose vs Hamilton
0:5
Apr 18, 2026 League One
Montrose vs Hamilton
0:2
Feb 28, 2026 League One
Hamilton vs Montrose
1:1
Oct 18, 2025 League One
Montrose vs Hamilton
0:4
Aug 2, 2025 League One
Hamilton vs Montrose
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montrose Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Hamilton Compare

Top Goalscorer McKinstry S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bannigan S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montrose 36 / 100
Hamilton 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montrose Hamilton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamilton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montrose has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Montrose scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Hamilton conceded in 56% of 27 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Montrose VS Hamilton
2.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Montrose

(Home)
19 Sept
East Fife
1 : 2
Montrose
12 Sept
Montrose
2 : 1
Cove Rangers
08 Sept
Montrose
3 : 2
Dundee FC B
05 Sept
Peterhead
0 : 3
Montrose
29 Aug
Montrose
2 : 1
Queen of the South
Page 1 of 6

Hamilton

(Away)
19 Sept
Hamilton
4 : 1
Queen of the South
08 Sept
Spartans
0 : 4
Hamilton
05 Sept
East Kilbride
0 : 1
Hamilton
29 Aug
Hamilton
1 : 0
Cove Rangers
25 Aug
Hamilton
0 : 1
Edinburgh City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ross County 7 6 1 0 22:4 19
2 Hamilton 7 6 1 0 16:1 19
3 Montrose 8 5 0 3 13:13 15
4 East Kilbride 8 4 1 3 14:12 13
5 Alloa 8 2 3 3 8:6 9
6 Airdrieonians 8 2 3 3 6:11 9
7 East Fife 8 1 5 2 7:7 8
8 Peterhead 8 2 1 5 6:14 7
9 Cove Rangers 8 1 2 5 5:11 5
10 Queen of the South 8 1 1 6 6:24 4
Promotion - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)