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Montrose vs St Johnstone

World World

Club Friendly
Sat, Jul 4, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montrose play St Johnstone in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Montrose averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. St Johnstone averaged 1.9 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. In past meetings, Montrose won 1, St Johnstone won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 16, 2019 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Montrose and 2.19 for St Johnstone. This points to a St Johnstone double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Montrose
28%
Draws
42%
St Johnstone
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: St Johnstone

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Montrose picked up more points recently compared to St Johnstone.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 2.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 76%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Montrose Clean Sheet 10%
St Johnstone Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montrose St Johnstone
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 17
Draws 8 8
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.61 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.71 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2019 League Cup
Montrose vs St Johnstone
1:0
Jul 21, 2018 League Cup
Montrose vs St Johnstone
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montrose 29 / 100
St Johnstone 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montrose St Johnstone

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: St Johnstone or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.9%
2.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Montrose attacking → ← attacking St Johnstone

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montrose scored in 89% of their last 28 games.

St Johnstone let in goals in 41% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Montrose went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

St Johnstone lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 59
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38