Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Monza vs Catanzaro

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 U-Power Stadium (Brianteo), Monza
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Pontisso S.
39' Event
Fellipe Jack
Assist: Pontisso S.
46'
Sub
Mota D. In: Petagna A.
Out: Mota D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Catanzaro advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Monza
15%
Draws
26%
Catanzaro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Monza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Monza come out ahead of Catanzaro on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Monza's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Monza have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Catanzaro, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.6%
Monza Clean Sheet 68%
Catanzaro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monza Catanzaro
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 17 13
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.94 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2026 Serie B
Monza vs Catanzaro
0:2
May 24, 2026 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Monza
0:2
Apr 6, 2026 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Monza
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Serie B
Monza vs Catanzaro
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monza Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Catanzaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Fellipe Jack
1 Goals
Assists Leader Frosinini R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monza 77 / 100
Catanzaro 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monza Catanzaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Monza scored in 94% of their last 32 outings.

Catanzaro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Recent resilience: Monza stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monza VS Catanzaro
2 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Monza

(Home)
26 Sept
Monza
2 : 3
Cremonese
18 Sept
Monza
2 : 1
Sassuolo
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
06 Sept
Parma
1 : 1
Monza
01 Sept
Torino
0 : 1
Monza
Page 1 of 7

Catanzaro

(Away)
19 Sept
Sampdoria
2 : 1
Catanzaro
12 Sept
Catanzaro
1 : 0
Carrarese
05 Sept
Sudtirol
2 : 0
Catanzaro
30 Aug
Pisa
2 : 1
Catanzaro
21 Aug
Vicenza
3 : 2
Catanzaro
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Monza -
TBD -
Modena 0
Juve Stabia 1
Palermo -
TBD -
Catanzaro 3
Avellino 0
Semi-finals
Monza 4
Juve Stabia 3
Palermo 2
Catanzaro 3
Final
Monza 2
Catanzaro 2