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Monza vs Catanzaro

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 U-Power Stadium (Brianteo), Monza
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Pontisso S.
39' Event
Fellipe Jack
Assist: Pontisso S.
46'
Sub
Mota D. In: Petagna A.
Out: Mota D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Catanzaro advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Monza
28%
Draws
22%
Catanzaro
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Monza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Monza come out ahead of Catanzaro on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Monza's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Monza have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Catanzaro, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Monza Clean Sheet 68%
Catanzaro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monza Catanzaro
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 20 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.75 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 29, 2026 Serie B
Monza vs Catanzaro
0:2
May 24, 2026 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Monza
0:2
Apr 6, 2026 Serie B
Catanzaro vs Monza
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Serie B
Monza vs Catanzaro
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monza Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Catanzaro Compare

Top Goalscorer Fellipe Jack
1 Goals
Assists Leader Frosinini R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monza 59 / 100
Catanzaro 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monza Catanzaro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Monza scored in 84% of their last 32 outings.

Catanzaro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Recent resilience: Monza stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monza VS Catanzaro
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Monza

(Home)
24 Jul
Galatasaray
0 : 2
Monza
18 Jul
Monza
4 : 3
Pro Vercelli
29 May
Monza
0 : 2
Catanzaro
24 May
Catanzaro
0 : 2
Monza
19 May
Monza
2 : 1
Juve Stabia
Page 1 of 7

Catanzaro

(Away)
29 May
Monza
0 : 2
Catanzaro
24 May
Catanzaro
0 : 2
Monza
20 May
Palermo
2 : 0
Catanzaro
17 May
Catanzaro
3 : 0
Palermo
12 May
Catanzaro
3 : 0
Avellino
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Monza-
TBD-
Modena0
Juve Stabia1
Palermo-
TBD-
Catanzaro3
Avellino0
Semi-finals
Monza4
Juve Stabia3
Palermo2
Catanzaro3
Final
Monza2
Catanzaro2