Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Davila A.
22'
Lastre E.
38'
Sub
Ascues A. In: Ramos Rodriguez C. I.
Out: Ascues A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 1 game between Moquegua and Deportivo Garcilaso finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Moquegua.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Moquegua
33%
Draws
27%
Deportivo Garcilaso
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Moquegua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Moquegua carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Moquegua a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Moquegua Clean Sheet 68%
Deportivo Garcilaso Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moquegua Deportivo Garcilaso
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1 1.75
Goals Conceded 1 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Copa de la Liga
Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1:0
Feb 23, 2026 Liga 1
Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moquegua Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruiz K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Deportivo Garcilaso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moquegua 50 / 100
Deportivo Garcilaso 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moquegua Deportivo Garcilaso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOQ Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moquegua found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Deportivo Garcilaso conceded in 64% of 28 recent games.

Moquegua went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Deportivo Garcilaso's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Moquegua VS Deportivo Garcilaso
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Moquegua

(Home)
18 Jul
Moquegua
2 : 2
Comerciantes Unidos
12 Jul
Moquegua
1 : 0
Deportivo Garcilaso
29 Jun
FBC Melgar
0 : 0
Moquegua
21 Jun
Moquegua
3 : 2
Tacna Heroica
29 May
Atletico Grau
1 : 0
Moquegua
Page 1 of 6

Deportivo Garcilaso

(Away)
17 Jul
Sporting Cristal
1 : 0
Deportivo Garcilaso
12 Jul
Moquegua
1 : 0
Deportivo Garcilaso
29 Jun
Deportivo Garcilaso
4 : 1
Binacional
21 Jun
Cienciano
2 : 1
Deportivo Garcilaso
14 Jun
Deportivo Garcilaso
0 : 0
Cusco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1A. Lima17124130:840
2Los Chankas17104325:2134
3Cienciano17103434:2233
4Universitario de Deportes1785424:1529
5FBC Melgar1784529:2028
6Cusco1783621:2427
7Deportivo Garcilaso1775521:1826
8Alianza Atl.1756620:1821
9Comerciantes Unidos1756618:2021
10AD Tarma1755722:2120
11Sport Boys1755715:1920
12Sporting Cristal1754828:3019
13Cajamarca1746721:2618
14Moquegua1753917:2418
15FC Cajamarca1745823:2817
16Atletico Grau1744912:1816
17Sport Huancayo1744921:3116
18Juan Pablo II1744922:4016
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)