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Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Peru Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio 25 de Noviembre
Sun, Jul 12, 2026
1 - 0
06:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

1'
Negron M.
10'
Ramirez S.
15'
Lojas J.

AI Match Summary

Moquegua in this Copa de la Liga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Moquegua.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Moquegua
44%
Draws
20%
Deportivo Garcilaso
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Moquegua lately — more wins on the board than Deportivo Garcilaso.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Copa de la Liga fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Moquegua Clean Sheet 19%
Deportivo Garcilaso Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moquegua Deportivo Garcilaso
Matches Played 39 30
Wins 17 10
Draws 10 8
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Copa de la Liga
Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1:0
Feb 23, 2026 Liga 1
Moquegua vs Deportivo Garcilaso
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moquegua 36 / 100
Deportivo Garcilaso 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moquegua Deportivo Garcilaso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DEP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moquegua scored in 72% of their last 39 games.

Deportivo Garcilaso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Moquegua has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Moquegua VS Deportivo Garcilaso
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Alianza Atl.3
Pirata2
Cajamarca4
ADA Jaen1
Atletico Grau2
Carlos Mannucci1
Sport Boys1
Comerciantes FC0
Sporting Cristal2
Tacna Heroica1
Sport Huancayo3
Los Chankas1
Cienciano2
AD Tarma3
Moquegua1
Deportivo Garcilaso0
Quarter-finals
Alianza Atl.-
Cajamarca-
Atletico Grau-
Sport Boys-
Sporting Cristal-
Sport Huancayo-
AD Tarma-
Moquegua-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-